The VIX rejected where bulls want to see it reject, and indices are at the doorstep of the weekly 9-period SMA with an improving GEX picture. Out of the woods, right? Well, it’s possible, but you’ll have to read more to see what we’re watching.

A brief update on the latest bug fixes and upcoming improvements…

DIA is the one last major index that may need to cross over the middle Keltner channel before the OCD market “allows” a pullback. Who’s with me? Let’s see what happens tomorrow and whether or not DIA will first tag the 407 level before sending bulls to the back kitchen at the steakhouse.

Today’s strong gap up exceeded SPX 5400, but we faded after this morning, unsurprisingly closing at 5375, below the middle Keltner channel we discussed yesterday. With VIX and VVIX flashing some warning signals, we need to take a closer look at what is likely in the near-term.

IWM’s performance Monday led us to correctly anticipate a rally today, though indices went even further than anticipated to the upside. With the VIX holding the 30-level and IWM now holding Keltner resistance and the 190 negative GEX cluster, what is likely to happen next?

GEX remains in firmly negative territory, and the gap down today solidified that SPX and QQQ may want to head for lower levels. That said, we see a slight uptick (or larger for IWM) in net GEX today, so perhaps we will see a bounce soon. We are in a short the rip environment, but if we see a rip coming, we don’t want to get in the way, either.

As we enter the week ahead, we make some chart observations pertaining to most of the major indices as well as the current GEX picture, which is sure to shift as we enter the May OpEx cycle between now and May 16 (May 21 for monthly VIX options). We anticipate important updates to this picture as soon as tomorrow, and certainly this week.

This will be the last newsletter until Sunday, given the holiday hours and closure of the market Friday. We’ve been warning of divergences since Sunday, and really became more focused on downside risk over the last two days, which seems to have been the right move as of today’s afternoon selloff. With SPX 5200 being tested and the Hull holding on the first test, what’s next?

VIX and VVIX are at an interesting spot as we approach VIX expiration in the morning, and we are already seeing a slight turn more deeply into negative territory for QQQ. Will we end up getting a pullback into Thursday instead of a rally?

QQQ touched the anticipated 465 middle Keltner (ok, 464.98), and SPX came very close to touching the middle Keltner as well, falling short though relative to QQQ. WE see VIX divergences and some initial red flags as we approach VIX option expiration this Wednesday that we need to discuss.

GEX is improving (for the most part) and we see what may be a flag building out after Wednesday’s big jump, at least in the S&P. Are we likely going to experience a fakeout or breakout?

The largest total GEX cluster we pointed out at 5200 came into play much sooner than it could have, reaching the target today. Looking at the 0 DTE graph, we also noticed that 5150 popped up today as the biggest GEX cluster intraday, and once we lost 5200, 5150 arrived fairly quickly, eventually bottoming close to 5100 before rebounding. With this kind of volatility, what can we say is likely next?

Yesterday, we pointed out that VVIX finally reached the upper weekly Keltner channel, an event that doesn’t happen often, and perhaps marking a resistance area for volatility, or at least in the near future. We received feedback quickly as the market set records with its rise today, the biggest gain in Dow history and the largest 1-day drop in VIX history. Sorry to remind you…Even bear markets have big rallies. What’s next?

The shakeout continues, with shorts on the ropes this morning, then longs capitulating late in the day. We were satisfied to see yesterday’s predictions and signals realized. What’s next? Let’s take a look at any meaningful changes that may have occurred with the GEX picture.

Today saw the first warning shot to bears as oversold conditions and a recently extreme negative GEX structure coincided with positive tariff headlines, giving indices a sharp recovery from a harrowing gap down open. Is the selloff over, or is this just a break before a larger breakdown?

Real fear has entered the market, which has historically been a good time to buy. What about this time? Aren’t we watching a falling knife? We finally saw DIA hit the lower Dealer Cluster, the last of the major indices to reach it, though DIA overshot it while SPX’s lower dealer cluster moved even lower by Friday’s close. We see certain positive divergences, so are the two both correct but across different time frames? Let’s take a closer look.

We finally touched the approximate target zones mentioned early this week, reaching the weekly Keltner channels as well as the lower Dealer Cluster zones on most indices. One last stubborn index may need to reach its lower Dealer Cluster zone, so let’s take a look at that as well as an overview of the majors.

After hours tariff news was the catalyst to send futures lower, also giving us a proper extreme low GEX reading across the board. We also hit our rebound goal earlier of both the Hull moving average and the middle Keltner channel. Does it get any better than this? Well, it does, in fact.

Intraday volatility was quite impressive today as the market sought direction, creating an up-and-down rollercoaster pattern as the day progressed. Is this rally on borrowed time, or do we see sufficient runway to reach highs again?

Today saw the largest gain from open to close since March 21 for QQQ and the largest gain since February 28 for SPX. Intraday recoveries were even larger, making today fairly significant. With April beginning Tuesday, what do we see ahead?