The VIX approached 20 today, a test we’ve anticipated in the recent past as we saw key VIX technical levels conquered recently. Despite the red ink spread across indices today, let’s look at some details that paint more of a mixed picture, with QQQ appearing the most bearish and IWM appearing to be the most bullish.

September 2nd Stock Market Preview: Indices have rejected from the approximate area of the weekly Hull Moving Average, with GEX also shifting more negatively. The VIX remains on a Hull Moving Average buy signal, and volume is persistent at much higher strikes. Are we at the doorstep of a market decline or will we a continued push higher?

August 29 market preview: The last trading day of August is upon us, with indices approaching the weekly Hull Moving Average and SPX finally tagging 6500 today. With the VIX almost touching 14 today, we are nearing an inflection point where a decision will be made: The VIX will either fall into the channel established between 12-13 like May-July 2024, or we will see a rebound from this area. What is likely to happen next?

August 28 market preview: SPX and IWM have been showing relative strength to QQQ this week, and NVDA appears to have dragged QQQ down after hours as of the time of writing this edition of the newsletter. Does QQQ have hope for a rebound in the next couple of days to catch up with SPX, or will QQQ drag everything down and invalidate the buy signal mentioned yesterday? Let’s take a closer look at whether or not the much anticipated pullback is on hold or not.

August 27 market preview: The VIX lost its buy signal today, and we have NVDA and QQQ gaining a buy signal on the Hull Moving Average, as well as accompanying improvements in the GEX picture. While upside still appears to be limited in the near-term, we need to recognize the shorter term likelihood of at least an attempt toward higher targets already mentioned this week. A more substantial pullback still looms as a very real possibility. Let’s look closely at today’s close.

August 26 market preview: Indices are showing signs of weakness at the Hull Moving Average, which isn’t unexpected. IWM exceeded the Hull Friday, but now sits closer to the upper Keltner channel. How much downside is possible going into NVDA earnings? Call us skeptical, but let’s dig a little deeper and take a look.

August 25 market preview: August 22nd played out great according to our preview from the day prior, with indices tagging upside targets and potentially setting up some interesting possibilities for the week ahead.

Bulls now need to be cautious of a VIX near a potential reversal signal, indices tagging GEX upper dealer cluster zones, and indices also at or approaching resistance according to specific indicators like the Hull Moving Average and the Keltner channels. With GEX still looking bullish into year-end, can we still see a pullback? Let’s discuss.

August 22 market preview: Indices were unsurprisingly indecisive today, with Jerome Powell speaking Friday and NVDA earnings right around the corner. In today’s newsletter, we look at risks present that may justify moves in either direction, with a tactical view of reacting to whichever side is chosen first.

August 21 market preview: Downside warnings have been playing out as expected, but now the picture may get tricky: We have bullish divergence from DIA with WMT earnings premarket, the VIX still solidly on a buy signal, and QQQ’s big red candle has a long wick, indicating buying at the 560 area (a trade we took in Discord). Mixed signals on the surface, with GEX moving slightly more negative. Will we see a bounce and then more downside?

August 20 market preview: VIX monthly option expiration is at 9 am ET, and we will get Target (TGT) earnings. Several signals (including shifts in the GEX picture) signal that indices may be close to a deeper pullback, so let’s take a look as we formulate a game plan to react to opportunities this week.

Further cracks are emerging in the major indices immediately post-OpEx, with SPX now catching up (down?) with QQQ in relation to specific indicators flipping bearish. IWM has been the lone important holdout, though RTY futures are on the brink, despite the small decline. Can markets begin a “real” pullback prior to monthly VIX expiration Wednesday? Let’s look more closely.

As we resume our daily newsletter after a 2-brief break, indices are still holding with the weekly Hull Moving Average as resistance, the QQQ notably lost the daily Hull, and the VIX is on a buy signal. On top of that, QQQ saw GEX flip negative, and SPX saw a sharp drop as well, though still in positive territory. With OpEx behind us and VIX monthly option expiration coming Wednesday, we may see a sharper move happen in either direction either leading up to Wednesday or shortly thereafter.

Indices reached the weekly Hull Moving Average (support-turned-possible-resistance) today, achieving a test I was hoping to see. Is this the beginning of a massive blow-off move, or the end of the road for bulls? With PPI Thursday and OpEx coming Friday, it’s hard to say, but let’s take a closer look at some key indicators.

The VIX is showing positive momentum on the 2-hour timeframe, and it’s holding the Hull Moving Average on the weekly timeframe as well. With CPI approaching tomorrow, OpEx Friday coming up, and VIX monthly option expiration the following Wednesday, several opportunities exist to see the market break in one direction or another, or further chop within a wide range..What is GEX saying?

Despite daily ranges expanding, indices seem intent on preventing meaningful downside, though the VIX seems to be pressing on a string near the 15-handle. In tonight’s newsletter, we zoom out the weekly view on SPX and IWM and contrast that with the daily charts, with context tied to gamma exposure (GEX).

A determined effort seems to be in play toward preventing lasting downside, which can’t be ignored. We might have other timeframes in play at this point, which may imply additional upside attempts before a larger downward move, so let’s look at the weekly setup.

Today’s rally brought indices just above the confluence of the Hull Moving Average and the 9-period SMA, flipping bullish (according to my rules). The issue now is that the VIX will likely reach a floor pretty quickly at the current rate of decline, and the S&P+IWM only barely closed above the line..Here we go again with yet another evening of uncertainty regarding which direction the market will choose next. Let’s look at targets in both directions.

The lone positive divergence from IWM might not be enough to save the negativity seen with QQQ, especially given the bombs dropped by AMD and SMCI after hours. What are we looking for tomorrow?

IWM’s extreme negative condition is already largely cleared after today’s rally, and we’re approaching important resistance across the board. Let’s take a look at odds of upside versus downside from here and some key levels to watch.