October 21 Stock Market Preview: The big VVIX crush we highlighted over the weekend led to more upside Monday, with indices showing strong performances Monday. We now see volatility approaching a point where it might stage a comeback, but will we see lower highs for the VIX and a continuation higher for indices, or a shift in trend lower?

October 20 Stock Market Preview: Friday’s VIX and VVIX crush gives an encouraging sign to bulls, as well as QQQ and SPX’s close just above a potentially key technical indicator, the Hull Moving Average. However, IWM seems to be firmly in bearish territory, and the Hull+9SMA crossover happening on the VIX weekly chart gives cause for concern. We’re left with an uncertain picture, but let’s take a closer look.

October 16 Stock Market Preview: IWM finally (and properly) tagged 250 today, in fact, surpassing 250 for the intraday high of almost 253. IWM left a huge indecision candle that is quite some distance above the Hull Moving Average, likely increasing the chances of dropping back below 250. Will we see a decline to 230-240 now? SPX and QQQ both surpassed and then failed to hold their own respective Hulls, with the VIX holding above 20 as VVIX climbed. From the looks of it at this moment, we may not be out of the woods just yet.

October 16 Stock Market Preview: IWM finally (and properly) tagged 250 today, in fact, surpassing 250 for the intraday high of almost 253. IWM left a huge indecision candle that is quite some distance above the Hull Moving Average, likely increasing the chances of dropping back below 250. Will we see a decline to 230-240 now? SPX and QQQ both surpassed and then failed to hold their own respective Hulls, with the VIX holding above 20 as VVIX climbed. From the looks of it at this moment, we may not be out of the woods just yet.

October 15 Stock Market Preview: IWM nearly touched 250 today, essentially (though not precisely) fulfilling the 250 target we mentioned only yesterday. Given the harsh rejection at the end of the day, and the VIX maintaining over 20, we may be done with this leg of the rebound, aiming for an OpEx low. We can’t be certain though, because SPX and QQQ may still rebound further to test their own Hull Moving Averages, implying potential for IWM to temporarily reach even further beyond 250. What levels will we watch tomorrow?

October 14 Stock Market Preview: Today’s rebound rally took indices almost to initial resistance points, mirroring prior months where we saw quick pullbacks followed by a resumed uptrend. We do have several differences this time that we need to discuss, as well as IWM possibly giving us an early sign tomorrow regarding participants’ intent to continue upward or perhaps retest lows again.

October 13 Stock Market Preview: Despite conflicting bullish data on a very short-term basis last week, key bearish data points shared took priority as Friday saw the biggest intraday decline since April. We saw the predicted VIX spike fulfilled and our 6500-6600 pullback range tagged Friday. With IWM and QQQ GEX Intensity Gauges signalling near-extreme negative GEX readings, will we see a bounce coming up, and how much of a bounce?

October 10 Stock Market Preview: While indices were down today, the VIX closed below the key Hull Moving Average again. IWM closed below the Hull as well, but IWM made a higher low and higher high relative to yesterday. Perhaps the most concerning development was a sharp drop in SPX net GEX to new lows since September 25. While that low also marked a low for indices, we can’t say the same this time around.

October 9 Stock Market Preview: One of the two scenarios laid out in yesterday’s newsletter appears to be in play: SPX reaching 6800 while the VIX continues stair stepping toward a larger spike. IWM failed to make a higher high today, with QQQ seeing the greatest action. Will IWM play catchup? Can the VIX drop further without invalidating the setup for a spike higher?

October 8 Stock Market Preview: Indices breached key support to the downside across the board, though barely. The VIX has strongly breached the 17-level, perhaps giving the more concerning signal regarding a possible larger spike right around the corner. While we’re still in “buy-the-dip” mode, let’s take a closer look at some key levels as we look at how one might react to various scenarios going forward.

October 7 Stock Market Preview: The slow grind higher continues, with SPX falling shy of Friday’s high by barely a point. IWM made a new post-April high and QQQ almost reached 610. As upside targets get checked off, what are the most likely possibilities looking ahead? We also saw the VIX make a higher low and higher high despite the red candle today..

October 6 Stock Market Preview: IWM saw quick fulfillment of our bullish warning issued Thursday, with IWM almost reaching the 250 mark. The VIX continues to show divergent behavior, ignoring the rallying indices, and we see some other possible signs of trouble ahead, even if only temporary. What’s next?

October 3 Stock Market Preview: VIX divergences are building as indices push even higher, approaching yet another key potential resistance area. IWM is signaling we may yet see more upside ahead, but we want to be cautious about the possible short-lived nature of new highs from here without another pullback.

October 2 Stock Market Preview: Indices started out lower today, but what bull doesn’t love a gap down to buy? By the end of the day, indices were higher. We still see the VIX holding tightly around 16 and we also see negative divergence from IWM, which has yet to overcome the daily Hull Moving Average as the other indices have. IWM net GEX is also negative. Will IWM become a late bloomer in this rebound rally or is it flashing a warning sign?

October 1 Stock Market Preview: We begin the first day of trading in Q4 2025 Wednesday, and the markets are at an interesting spot. Indices bucked the stats for today, closing positive, the 38.7% probability mentioned yesterday. SPX and QQQ give mixed signals, and the VIX seems to be issuing a warning. The government is very likely to shut down at midnight, roughly an hour before you’ll receive this newsletter. What happens next?

September 30 Stock Market Preview: We saw the anticipated tag of the Hull Moving Average at the open today, with all indices rejecting this test. IWM sees GEX continue slightly toward the bearish side, while the VIX flips to a 2-hour and 4-hour buy (according to the Hull). With a looming government shutdown as a possibility this week, which pathways do we see as most likely?

September 26 Stock Market Preview: QQQ fulfilled our GEX-predicted tag of 590 today, and the VIX almost reached 18, both serving as great confirmation that the signals we’re seeing are valid. SPX dipped into negative GEX territory for the first time in several weeks, but an argument can be made that a rebound is imminent. What scenarios lie ahead since we saw IWM and QQQ reach initial downside targets before Friday?

September 26 Stock Market Preview: QQQ fulfilled our GEX-predicted tag of 590 today, and the VIX almost reached 18, both serving as great confirmation that the signals we’re seeing are valid. SPX dipped into negative GEX territory for the first time in several weeks, but an argument can be made that a rebound is imminent. What scenarios lie ahead since we saw IWM and QQQ reach initial downside targets before Friday?

September 25 Stock Market Preview: Indices saw follow-through to the downside today, though the VIX was also curiously lower. As we enter the final 4 trading days of September, let’s take a look at what GEX and our charts are saying about the likely outcomes, including the JPM collar (short calls) at 6505 set to expire Tuesday.

September 24 Stock Market Preview: Seeing any downside seems downright miraculous these days, so even today’s modest intraday decline is worth noting. Indices (except IWM) lost key Hull Moving Average support into the close, and QQQ flipped to negative GEX. Let’s take a look at how the current move might play out as we enter the back half of the week that we warned was seasonally bearish (on average).