We see some smaller early divergences with the VIX and the indices today, and we are in the upper Dealer Cluster zone for IWM, but the upper zones for QQQ and SPX have moved higher as price moves higher. We still have the upper Keltner channel to contend with and possible surprises inherent with tomorrow’s final Q2 weekly expiration and the end of the quarter Monday.

SPX is within the upper Dealer Cluster zone and the upper Keltner channel is roughly 1% away at 6155. With the end of the quarter right around the corner, the pathway over the next few days may be treacherous, with volatility in both directions. Our conclusion remains that the easy money has been made since April, and the pathway may be more difficult looking ahead, despite an ultimate upward trajectory looking good into the Fall.

Indices made a decisive move today, gapping up even more from the Hull Moving Average and propelling markets to their upper Dealer Cluster zones. SPX finally reached 6100. Let’s look ahead and see how far this move may extend, and what the VIX has to say about that as well.

The first trading day after OpEx week proved to be a volatile one, with a gap up that got sold off to just below 5950, then a powerful move back up to close the day just over the Hull Moving Average. QQQ wasn’t able to close above the Hull though, and we see mixed moves with net GEX as well. So the question we all want to have answered is: What’s next?

Indices show mixed GEX signals as of Friday’s close, with SPX and IWM seeing increases in net GEX (a big increase for SPX) while SPY and QQQ show sharp decreases in net GEX. Technically, we see indices holding below the Hull Moving Average and the VIX closed above the line. What comes next?

IWM’s Hull moving average has rolled over to a more negative trend and QQQ and SPX are starting to turn. Wednesday’s move lower was not met with a big move lower in net GEX though, in fact SPX saw a rebound in GEX to positive territory again. What pathways look most likely going forward?

Downside continued today, a move advertised early on thanks to our 0 DTE GEX graph. As we enter VIX expiration premarket before FOMC, we are on high alert for possible volatility and either a trend change or acceleration, so we’ll be watching for signs in advance of wherever the market is going to move.

Monday saw indices rallying into Hull moving average support-turned-resistance, which is exactly what I was wanting to see. IWM and DIA closed weaker, rejecting the Hull (as did QQQ and SPX) but also closing even lower relative to their respective Hulls. Did participants expend all of their purchasing power to get to the line only to fail, or have we seen the start of a larger squeeze into OpEx week and FOMC? Let’s take a closer look.

IWM continues to give us the most transparent signals compared to other indices, with Thursday’s close below the Hull leading to more downside Friday. While our bias remains tactically short below the Hull moving average, let’s take a look at a possible tricky pathway that may involve both upside and downside this week prior to reaching the destination for this move lower in SPX, QQQ, and IWM.

The VIX and IWM appear to (once again) have been good precursors for risk reappearing in markets. With OpEx and VIX monthly option expiration right around the corner, What are we looking for as we see futures tanking on news of the Iran strike?

IWM has once again led the way down after breaching the upper Keltner channel this morning. We also see a potentially concerning close above the daily Hull for the VIX, the first of its kind since late May. With a rising Keltner channel, persistent higher GEX for SPX, and VIX monthly option expiration next week, we may see a tricky pathway forward wrought with dangers for bulls and bears alike. Scared? Read further.

Indices are edging closer to the upper Keltner channels while IWM actually reached the upper Dealer Cluster zone and almost touched the upper Keltner channel. Let’s take a look at some subtle changes that may prove impactful as we enter the timing of CPI at 8:30 AM ET tomorrow morning.

GEX and several indicators show no sign of the current rally letting up, yet this week has several possible volatility catalysts that might end up coinciding with important upside targets being reached. Let’s take a closer look (whoa, hey, not THAT close!).

The GEX picture remains surprisingly bullish despite the “wall of worry” indices have appeared to have climbed, though we do see signs of an upcoming pause. Let’s take a look at a possible sequence of events and some of the questions yet to be answered, so we know what to look for as we enter the new week.

SPX had a nice intraday reversal higher at first, tagging the upper Dealer Cluster zone finally (well, 5999.44 is close enough!), then another reversal lower, closing pennies below the daily Hull moving average. Does this mean we are done with the upside for now? Not so fast, let’s take a full look across the board to best assess what comes next.

As long as we’re above 5928 SPX, my bias is for more upside, also factoring in what we’re seeing on the GEX screen. The rally has seemed pretty sluggish since 5/27, yet we continue pushing toward the target. Slowness can equate difficulty for a lot of traders who lose confidence when a move to a target isn’t fast “enough.” What changes can we comment on today? Read further.

Nice follow through to the upside for indices today, with most indices reaching the upper Dealer Cluster zones. Picking a top is extremely difficult, and we don’t know the future. But let’s take a look at some possible targets that may be relevant in the hours and days ahead in today’s newsletter.

We’re above the Hull at today’s close, triggering a long signal that potentially will take us to the upper Dealer Cluster zones. Let’s take a closer look in today’s newsletter.

We’re beginning the last month of Q2, and with performance for the indices being very positive since April, we may see the institutional incentive of chasing positive performance take hold. While a speculative possibility, and fraught with the risk of intramonth volatility between points A and B, GEX seems to be backing an eventual positive resolution at this time. Let’s take a closer look.

Indices started out higher today on the back of NVDA, though SPX faded significantly premarket from the overnight highs. We are still experiencing the chop of the gauntlet near the upper Dealer Cluster zones, though IWM actually tagged the zone today, to the penny at 210. Let’s take a look at what might transpire next as we conclude the month of May.