2nd Half Of September: Historical Trend Or Making History? Stock Market Preview For September 22, 2025
PORTFOLIO MANAGER ANNUAL SUBSCRIPTION PROMO- $300 off of the annual Portfolio Manager subscription Enter code SEPTEMBER2025 at checkout! ENDS SOON!
Tonight’s YouTube video is posted. Take a look if you get a chance, we discuss major indices combining GEX with some different indicators referenced in the newsletter, and we also cover some individual stocks not discussed here.
Wayne Whaley posted a helpful data point on X.com this weekend, showing that historically ( since 1976) the S&P has been positive 8 out of 22 times in the week following a positive monthly timeframe leading into September OpEx, with an average decline of -0.94%. I’m reminded of Jim Carey’s character in Dumb & Dumber (back in the 90s, when funny movies were actually made) saying “so you’re telling me there’s a chance?”
To translate, this coming week doesn’t look historically great for bulls, but hey, 8 out of 22 is still something.
For at least the last 3 months, we’ve been sharing our opinion that dips should be bought, and that gamma exposure (GEX) ultimately points higher as we progress toward year-end.
We have also cautioned at times that indices appeared overextended and that a dip was due, and we are certainly in the general timeframe of a pullback, especially given various divergences and/or extremes.
That said, even though SPX tagged 6666 Friday and closed below (a level I’ve jokingly referenced as it pertains to the 2009 low of 666), all current signs point higher for SPX.
We have the biggest GEX cluster visible at 6700, and 6800 (along with 7000 for that matter) not far behind in terms of relative size.
This is where we can add additional indicators to try and help us improve our odds in the near-term, focusing on the Keltner channels in my case. The upper Keltner matches quite well with the 6700 GEX cluster, also within the upper Dealer Cluster zone.
The bullish Keltners and the strength of price as it remains above the Hull Moving Average have coincided with a steady shifting higher in the GEX arena, but seasonality this week combined with possible resistance factors we’ve noted raises the odds of a pullback at some point this week.
IWM has been very bullish as well, though IWM did show negative price divergence Friday, being down while QQQ and SPX fared better.
I think equally as important (and paradoxically), we now see GEX at 250 larger than ever before, possibly indicating a magnet that needs to be tagged prior to a pullback.
Volume does continue to be more elevated at lower prices, especially the 230 area, so any push higher from here may be best viewed as temporary, or at least warranting caution.
The VIX completed its monthly options expiration Wednesday, and for the week, the VIX closed higher, showing divergence that also may give pause to thoughtful bulls as the VIX has actually moved higher over a 7-week period. Last I checked, shouldn’t volatility be dropping as the market marches to new highs?
Daily volume (as illustrated by our light-blue horizontal bars) continues to be elevated at higher strikes up to 25.
While the VIX spiked above the 9-period SMA on the weekly chart (the yellow line), the VIX closed just below the line, maintaining indecision in the short run regarding another test of 14.5 or a breakout above 15.68 to head back toward 20-25.
Looking more closely at the VIX, the 4-hour chart reveals a close above the Hull, maintaining a buy signal for the VIX (though barely).
Given that the Hull is slightly declining, and the VIX sits in the middle of the Keltner range, we really can’t look to the VIX at this exact moment with high confidence in one direction or another.
Combining what we see (or don’t see) with the VIX and the higher targets on the indices, I think the odds still rest toward a tag of higher prices before a more substantial pullback.
6700 SPX and 250 IWM have the potential to mark reversals toward lower levels, which we view as a buying opportunity into year-end.
We’ll update our view with real-time data in Discord as we see the 0 DTE picture shift in the cash session, so we hope you’ll join us!
Here’s the link to our Discord server if you haven’t joined us yet! We have an active community of thoughtful and experienced traders who chime in throughout the day, and several channels dedicated to intraday and weekly trading.
You can join our discussion every day when we discuss markets in real-time via our Geeks Live livestream, now available to everyone for free via the homepage!
If you’re interested in accessing our tools and analytics, be sure to check out our website! We have a lot of updates in the works, and we have 2 primary membership tiers that you can read more about by clicking here: All About Our Memberships
If you’re interested in learning more about our strategy and approach, we address all of these topics in our Geek University course which is included in all memberships.
We posted a YouTube video today, as mentioned at the beginning of the newsletter, and we have useful and educational playlists, so give our channel a look if you’re curious about recent market commentary and ideas as well as gamma (GEX) concepts explained.
Thanks for being part of our community and know that we invite your feedback!
The information provided by Geeks of Finance LLC is for educational purposes only and is not intended to be, nor should be construed as, an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security or instrument or to participate in any transaction or activity. Please view our Investment Adviser Disclaimer and Risk Disclosure.
