FOMC And Monthly VIX Expiration: September 17 Stock Market Preview
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We take a look at major indices and the VIX heading into FOMC and the monthly VIX expiration in tonight’s YouTube video, also taking a look at some individual names like MSFT.
The VIX remains on a daily buy signal, seeing another notable increase following yesterday’s close above the Hull Moving Average.
We also see the VIX closing above the weekly 9-period SMA today, a potential sign of further upside for the VIX. The last three spikes above the line were rejected by the end of the week, which is entirely possible this week as well, so we will watch how the VIX behaves as we get through tomorrow’s expiration premarket and the FOMC announcement, then the quad witching on Friday.
A lot of negative GEX expires tomorrow at 15.5 and 16, so the close today just above 16 makes a lot of sense from a perspective of seeing puts at those levels expire worthless. A continued spike higher may find resistance at 17.5-18.
IWM has been underperforming the last few days, sticking very close to the rising Hull. Keltners are still pointing higher in bullish fashion, with the top Keltner close to the GEX we see at 245.
240 is still aligned with the Hull, and IWM closed below the line today, leaving the immediate burden in the hands of bulls to overcome that 240 area to open the door to 245-250.
Volume continues to be elevated at lower strikes down to 225, not quite as alarming as the heavy volume we saw Monday between 200-225, but still a bit out of the norm compared to recent months.
SPX still has higher targets in play (potentially), with 6650 and even 6700 resting as meaningful GEX clusters.
SPX is definitely close to the line though, with large GEX just below at 6600 potentially marking a pivot point, and certainly the rising Hull at 6584. Downside below 6584 may accelerate a trip to 6500.
SPX saw total net GEX decline significantly today, though we are still in solid positive GEX territory at over 1.1B.
FOMC is notorious for fakeout moves in both directions, but we’ve found GEX to give us a more solid framework for trading during FOMC on many occasions, and we’ll be sure to share observations in Discord tomorrow as we see the announcement and press conference unfold.
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