Here We Go Again…
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Today’s YouTube video can be viewed by clicking here. We cover some complementary data points as well as other observations that might be helpful.
Indices look bullish as of today’s close, and even after hours, as future push higher.
IWM was the sole “sourpuss (a highly scientific term)” of the bunch, leaving a red candle behind.
Even with its red candle, IWM closed well above the Hull Moving Average, triggering a long single (according to my rules).
We’ll look at the VIX later, which presents a conundrum: If indices are flipping bullish, how do we reconcile a close above a key technical indicator and the VIX being almost back to 16? We’ll dive into this deeper, but as far as IWM is concerned, I’m looking for possibly a 2% move higher, roughly back to 225 before greater risk of downside.
SPX had the most suspect close, requiring a huge green candle just to barely close above the Hull.
Coinciding with IWM at 225 and the VIX at 16, I found a resistance level looking at ES futures that points to 0.5%-1% upside for SPX, putting it within range of the noticeable GEX cluster at 6400 (maybe 6375, just to enrage the 6400 crowd, possibly).
The 2-hour SPX Keltners look bearish, though targeting the lower channel at 6190 requires losing the 6329 area first.
I’ve been sharing SPY data this week due to the massive 0 DTE positions skewing SPX, with today’s 1.5B swing as case in point.
The sharp drop over a weeks time and then a sharp rise in a day is a sign of a big change ahead, in my view.
QQQ has entered manic mode, trading higher on bad semiconductor news (and climbing further on after-hours 100% semiconductor tariff news, LOL), making up a huge drop the day prior and closing well above the Hull.
Don’t fight price action, so looking at higher targets, I think we need to watch the big GEX cluster at 570. This matches what I see as resistance on the neutral 2-hour Keltner channels, though pushing higher from there would target 575.
QQQ with roughly a 1.2B GEX swing, going from -623 million GEX to positive 580 million.
I ended yesterday’s newsletter with a rhetorical question about how many days the VIX can be pushed lower by double-digits before reaching a likely floor. Alright, technically today it “only” dropped -6%, but the point remains..And GEX backs the view that 16-17 is still a possible reversal zone.
My previous targets on indices utilized indicators specific to those indices, though I also incorporated some guesstimates regarding where they might be with the VIX at 16, since the confluence of the two factors should work in tandem to mark a reversal.
The risk exists that the VIX enters a new regime for a time of declining to even lower lows, say- 10-12, but until we lose 15 and hold below it, we will supress the imagination and rely on recent history, looking for a VIX spike before our next likely round of market upside into year-end.
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