Flipping To A Buy Signal! At Least Temporarily (Market Preview- August 27)
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Tonight’s YouTube video can be viewed by clicking here. We discuss the big picture with major indices as well as a few individual names, so check it out!
Our previously expressed skepticism appears to have been well placed, with indices recapturing the daily Hull Moving Average (“the Hull”), the VIX flipping to a sell, and GEX generally improving across the board.
The odds of a near-term push higher are still countered by the risk of a deeper pullback, though such a pullback appears to be more likely after an upisde market spike, as of today’s close.
Let’s start with a brief analysis of the VIX, which lost several key areas of support on the 2-hour chart as the VIX appears to be heading toward 14.
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Switching over to QQQ, we see QQQ closed well above the declining Hull, creating a buy signal. GEX is back to positive today, though still within a range we view as neutral, yet 580 appears to be indicated as a likely upside target.
QQQ’s weekly chart shows 565 to be an important bull/bear line below, so until we lose 565, the daily chart indicating QQQ on a buy signal and the weekly chart not flipping to a sell until 565 cause me to be biased toward the upside above 565.
The 3D chart confirms the signficance of 580, with 580 marking the largest GEX cluster expiring this week.
IWM remains bullish, another potential confidence booster for longs in other indices. While IWM is right at the doorstep to the upper Dealer Cluster zone, we see 240 as a significant target that also matches up with the upper daily Keltner Channel. Perhaps IWM tags 240 and then embarks on a bullish pullback toward 220-230?
This will be our last newsletter entry prior to NVDA earnings after the bell tomorrow. NVDA has continued pushing higher, with the upper Keltner channel at 200, and accompanying GEX that makes an initial spike very likely, except for the pesky unknown we call “earnings.”
NVDA’s Hull on the weekly chart is around 188, also very close to the upper Dealer Cluster. Given that daily and weekly charts are in agreement, and NVDA is below the Hull, I’m guessing we touch 188-190 and maybe 200 post-earnings, but the possibility of a pullback and speed of a pullback may surprise some, with a drop toward 160.
We’ll be happy to share our thoughts in Discord tomorrow, we hope you’ll join us!
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We posted a YouTube video today, as mentioned at the beginning of the newsletter, and we have useful and educational playlists, so give our channel a look if you’re curious about recent market commentary and ideas as well as gamma (GEX) concepts explained.
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