Early Signs Of A VIX turn?
SUMMER PORTFOLIO MANAGER ANNUAL SUBSCRIPTION PROMO- We’re currently offering $300 off of the annual Portfolio Manager subscription, which includes access to our full GEX dashboard, a 5-hour Geek University course, full Discord access including trade ideas, and our daily livestream. Take advantage now, deal with the summer heat on your own, but let our tools remove some heat from your portfolio! Enter code SUMMER2025 at checkout to lock in a great annualized cost for access to our top subscription!
Today’s YouTube video can be viewed by clicking here. Check it out if you have a few minutes! In tonight’s newsletter, we look at the subtle reversal of the VIX and where it might be headed, IWM, and SPX.
The VIX: Reversing On Smaller Timeframes
We see the 2-hour and 4-hour charts reflecting a turn for the VIX, bouncing off of the big GEX cluster at 15. VIX net GEX remains positive since yesterday, a big shift.
Retaking the Hull marked the momentum shift in the short term, but we are still faced with bearish (for volatility) downward sloping Keltner channels.
Changing the trajectory for the VIX will require not just a spike, but also consolidation at higher levels, or a shift in the trend to incrementally rising VIX levels.
The most likely scenario (as long as GEX remains the same) is either consolidation at the current range of 14.5-15.5 or a spike from this area toward 17-20, or the upper Dealer Cluster zone at 25.
Tradingview.com
Volume (the light blue horizontal bars) today was focused almost exclusively at higher strikes for the VIX, and we see more GEX at 25 than at any strike below 25 but above 15.5.
The VIX is still very close to the Hull Moving Average and the VIX is also at an area of resistance-turned-support since almost exactly one year ago, in July 2024, when 15 became a lasting support area to the present time. Prior to July 2024, we saw 11-13 as a support area for quite some time.
SPX: Limited Upside In The Short Run
SPX is at the doorstep of the upper Dealer Cluster zone at 6400, also matching with the upper Keltner channel. GEX is substantial at 6500 as well, though GEX drops off at 6600 and beyond in noticeable fashion.
Overall GEX is still biased toward the positive side, so we view any immediate dip toward 6000 as a likely buying opportunity.
Our 3D GEX graph shows 6400 to be the largest GEX cluster expiring tomorrow, increasing the odds of tagging that area tomorrow.
IWM: The Most Bullish US Index At The Moment
IWM retested the resistance-turned-support Hull today, closing just below the line.
GEX and Keltner channels suggest a bullish resolution to any pullback, but we need to watch the action around the 223.60 Hull. Loss of the Hull more definitively with a close below the Hull again may signal weakness ahead.
Daily volume (in light blue) continues to be most concentrated at lower strikes, and GEX at 210 and 215 is larger than any strike above 230.
GEX for IWM swung back into negative territory, though 230 still looks like a solid target. The question is whether we achieve the 230 target imminently, or if the fact that 230 is mostly clustered at August 15 means that we may see a deeper pullback first.
We’ll be watching intraday changes and sharing them in Discord accordingly.
Here’s the link to our Discord server if you haven’t joined us yet! Discord is our most active social media setting. Access is free for some channels, and new members have a 7-day trial within Discord to see how we operate. We have an active community of thoughtful and experienced traders who chime in throughout the day, and several channels dedicated to intraday and weekly trading.
If you’re interested in accessing our tools and analytics, be sure to check out our website! Mobile updates are now live for a better mobile experience and both subscription tiers have access to our full list of tickers!
If you’re interested in learning more about our strategy and approach, we address all of these topics in our Geek University course which is included in all memberships.
We posted a YouTube video today, as mentioned at the beginning of the newsletter, and we have many other short videos, so give our channel a look if you’re curious about recent market commentary and ideas as well as gamma (GEX) concepts explained.
Thanks for being part of our community and know that we invite your feedback!
The information provided by Geeks of Finance LLC is for educational purposes only and is not intended to be, nor should be construed as, an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security or instrument or to participate in any transaction or activity. Please view our Investment Adviser Disclaimer and Risk Disclosure.
