Dip Buyers Abound: Is SPX Out Of The Woods? March 4 Stock Market Preview
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Turnaround Tuesday started out more like Turn-and-frown Tuesday before dip buyers stepped in, painting a fairly impressive candle for the day, with a long wick down to the 6711 low.
SPX is in the lower Dealer Cluster zone, though futures are currently lower and we see significant GEX at the proper 6700 strike and 6600 that remain untouched since November.
There’s no guarantee we will reach either of those levels in the cash session, but I do like the idea of a possible dip buy at the lower daily Keltner channel close to the 6600 strike.
With today’s candle possibly indicating interested buyers near 6700, we may have the ingredients in place for a short-term low, also considering that price is relatively extended below the HMA at 6882.81. Reversion is possible back toward that area from here, and the longer we chop around 6800, I believe the more likely we can see a retest of the HMA.
It’s notable that SPX GEX slipped deeper into negative territory today, so maybe that likable idea I mentioned of 6600 being a target can still be considered in coming days..We will see what happens!
QQQ also saw GEX move deeper into negative territory despite the green daily candle, and we can see QQQ still hanging out close to the important pivot at 600.
Some positive GEX targets do exist toward 620-630, but we see volume and more GEX concentrated below 600 for now.
Continuation lower may target 575-580, while a retest of the HMA at 608 (or an overshoot to the GEX cluster at 610) is entirely possible in terms of upside. 0 DTE GEX structure has been very helpful in firming up a view of what’s next as we enter the next cash session.
Yesterday, we noted the unusually large GEX cluster at 257 expiring today…Well, that certainly came into play, and quite early in the day, at that. The intraday low of 253.31 hasn’t been visited since December, and gets us fairly close to the big GEX cluster at 250.
GEX moved deeper into negative territory today, similar to SPX and QQQ, despite the green candle. We might not be out of the woods yet, and the almost singular concentration of daily volume at strikes from 250-261 certainly raise questions in my mind about the likelihood of a move beyond the 263 HMA retest.
Lastly, while the VIX reached 28 today, we still see positive GEX and GEX clusters up to 35 showing what we see as a possible upside target, with any drop to 22 ideally holding and reversing back up.
A loss of 22 (and even more importantly, 20) starts to look more like the spike may be over, so we’ll watch for those levels on the downside.
The burden is still on market bulls to break the VIX’s uptrend to the downside and signal that the correction is likely over…But we don’t see that just yet, so we’ll stay on our toes!
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