SPX Rallies To Resistance (Again), VIX Holds Its Uptrend: Make Or Break? March 5 Stock Market Preview
Get $300 off of the annual Portfolio Manager subscription, enter code SPRING2026 at checkout!
Tonight’s YouTube video covers SPX, IWM, the VIX, AVGO (which just reported earnings), and ADBE, so check it out if you have a few minutes! You can view it by clicking Community at the top of our homepage to find the link to our YouTube channel.
SPX saw a nice rally today right into key resistance, briefly surpassing the HMA and a thick confluence of other indicators before closing just below those indicators and the large positive and negative gross GEX clusters at 6900 (not obvious on the net GEX in purple below).
The wide distance between upper and lower Keltner channels and the wide dispersion of GEX clusters above and below SPX’s price leave us with a relatively uncertain picture, though the “chop” since January has been downward, even if not aggressively so.
Zooming out to the weekly chart, SPX still has the weekly 9 SMA and HMA between 6910 and 6927 to contend with, and we still see greatly diminishing positive GEX clusters above the 7100 mark.
SPX has been below the now declining weekly HMA since the week ending 1/11.
7000 remains the largest gross and net GEX cluster on the map, representing both a potential ceiling as well as a potential target, if we see the 6927 area captured on a daily closing basis.
While SPX net GEX slightly crossed over the positive line today, note that most of the positive net GEX is at 7000. The #2 and #3 largest net GEX clusters are in negative territory, at 6800 and 6700.
QQQ closed above the daily HMA, which may be a positive sign, at first glance. However, we see the weekly chart showing QQQ closing every week since 1/4 below the weekly HMA, currently at 611.29.
Today’s close is also below the weekly 15 EMA (barely), which is at 610.79.
With the 9 SMA at 614.55, it’s my view that a weekly close above 615 should open the door to a test of the relatively large positive GEX at 630.
QQQ remains in negative GEX territory, with large GEX clusters at negative strikes. The 50 EMA hasn’t been tested since May 2025, can we see such a test now (taking QQQ toward 560), or are we done with the selling?
The VIX gapped down today, testing key 9 SMA and HMA support.
While the VIX remains very close to a potential breakdown, GEX tells a different story, with positive GEX remaining and volume elevated up to the 50 strike.
As long as the VIX holds above 18, the odds seem favorable (in my view) for a continued spike higher.
Zooming in a bit further, the 2-hour chart shows the VIX crossing over the declining HMA. Even if it takes a fcouple of bars, the 2-hour chart seems pretty consistent in showing where 2-hour HMA crossovers can see at least a temporary VIX spike.
We’ll share some observations in Discord tomorrow, so we hope you’ll join us there!
To enter Discord as a non-subscriber, go to our homepage and click on Community to enter our Discord server! First-time guests receive a free 7-day trial of the premium Discord channels and this is where we discuss what’s happening in real-time.
We conduct a livestream that is accessible from our homepage every day around 10:30am ET, so feel free to join us there. You can also listen to our most recent livestream any time before the next day’s livestream occurs.
We just introduced an annual discount for the annual Portfolio Manager subscription, so enter SPRING2026 at checkout!
Thanks for being part of our community and know that we invite and appreciate your feedback!
The information provided by Geeks of Finance LLC is for educational purposes only and is not intended to be, nor should be construed as, an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security or instrument or to participate in any transaction or activity. Please view our Investment Adviser Disclaimer andRisk Disclosure.
