War With Iran: Buy The Dip Or Sell The Dip? March 3 Stock Market Preview
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Tonight’s YouTube video covers SPX, the VIX, QQQ, BTC, SLV, GLD, and USO, which is more than we’ll touch on in the newsletter this evening. You can view it by clicking Community at the top of our homepage to find the link to our YouTube channel!
Our closing note in our Discord gamma exposure channel (accessible by 7-day Guests and both membership tiers) Friday highlighted concerns about SPX closing below key resistance points and the VIX closing above key support levels, and these concerns have already been validated with the weekend news of the attacks against Iranian political and military targets.
The VIX appeared to be breaking down on the daily chart as of Tuesday, but this “breakdown” only ended up testing weekly support by early Thursday, then seeing a very strong reactive bounce back over 20 that initially faded before gapping up Friday.
Volume continues to be mostly focused above the 16 strike and the rising trendline still intact as of Friday’s close.
Thursday’s newsletter focused on the divergence between the positive tilt of IWM and the negative (for indices) tilt of the VIX, and for now, the VIX won. IWM’s gap down Friday had already invalidated my most bullish scenario for the market, and the close was equally uninspiring.
Zooming out, IWM appears to have flattened out in a lengthy sideways consolidation, raising risk of an outsized move, yet without clarity in terms of up or down being the most likely direction.
The Keltner channels still lean bullish, in my view, yet the shift in GEX is mostly toward the negative.
Looking at where GEX closed Friday, negative GEX at the 257 strike is now the largest net GEX cluster for IWM, with 255 (and accompanying volume Friday at 255) also an area of interest.
Positive GEX at 265 and 270 appear to be the most meaningful positive clusters at the moment, so any capture of 263.76 or above (based on the HMA) brings these GEX targets into focus.
The first thing we started off with in Friday’s late day gamma exposure update was the fact that SPX was closing out the 3rd week in a row below the 9 SMA, with even one week below the 9 SMA having only occurred twice since April 2025.
This noteworthy shift introduced uncertainty, at a minimum, and the start of a deeper downtrend, at worse.
The lower Dealer Cluster zone stretches from 6600-6700, with the big GEX cluster at 6700 drawing my attention, so we will see what happens as we approach the rising weekly 50 EMA (the blue line).
Friday’s net GEX shift at the close dropped deeper into negative territory after a brief spike into positive territoryt for two days,
SPX spent only 8 days of February in positive GEX territory, but even many of the negative GEX days were still within a range that we would consider neutral (+/- 1B), so I think the emphasis here is uncertainty, even if the likely scenario of a gap down unfolds.
A gap down Monday may suck in enough bears to justify a rally to the 6900 area, though we’ll wait to narrow our targets until the cash session is in full swing.
We will continue to share speculative views a day or days in advance, then tighten up our expectations using the readings on the 0 DTE GEX graph within 30 minutes of the open. We will share some of this information for free in our Discord chat in coming days, so we hope you’ll join!
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