QQQ: Destined For 575? March 24 Stock Market Preview
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Before we delve into QQQ, let’s take a look at a few others, starting with SPX, which continues tracking the daily HMA lower.
It’s not inspiring to see SPX failing to make higher rebound highs, but at least we don’t see new lows (yet).
I filtered out today’s 0 DTE GEX as well as 0 DTE volume in order to focus on GEX and option volume beyond today’s expiration. We see more net GEX at 6200-6400 than we’ve seen before, and volume continues to be fairly dispersed, with noteworthy option activity at 6000, 6500, 6600, and 7000.
I still believe 6700 is a realistic upside target, but GEX and the current trend lower may be targeting the 6400 area before another decision is made. After a sustained move lower, it’s hard for me to get excited about the risk/reward of a deeper downside move, but I am prepared for the possibility.
The VIX closed higher than it did on Monday, maintaining the uptrend we’ve been noting the entire year, and heavy volume occurred at the 35 strike and higher.
While not conclusive, the VIX seems like it might still be a bit angry (or hangry), possibly targeting the 35 area or higher on another spike.
Losing 25 on a daily close- and 24 would be even better- we might be able to see a more sustained bullish move, so we’ll keep an eye on the current trendline and other signals.
QQQ looks weaker than the rest of the bunch, closing below the HMA and not far from last week’s lows.
Net GEX has grown at 570-575, even though total net GEX has actually improved this week, though it’s still in negative territory.
Looking at volume (bars in light blue), I do notice meaningful GEX at 600, which is a potential rebound target if QQQ can retake the 590 strike.
Downside doesn’t appear dramatic from here, based on GEX, but I do believe the odds are growing for a new low toward 570, based on relative GEX at that strike.
Our 3D graph shows an interesting development post-OpEx for QQQ: The largest net GEX cluster looking ahead is the negative cluster at 575 expiring this Friday. Could this stalactite end up being a target this week? Certainly so, if today’s action was any guide.
IWM was bullish today, holding most of its gains into the close and retaking the HMA and 9 SMA. I don’t know what to make of the divergence, but it would seem that someone is at risk of being trapped. Will QQQ shorts get squeezed? Will small caps become smaller caps?
IWM GEX and volume is heavily toward the negative side, so maybe IWM has a retest of lower levels in store.
IWM’s 3D graph suggests longs are at risk of a 240 retest, based on the largest net GEX cluster expiring Friday.
With recent days proving to be more volatile than some this year, and larger gap ups or gap downs to navigate at the beginning of the day, we will monitor shifts in GEX as we start Wednesday’s cash session. We hope you’ll join us in Discord where we’ll continue the conversation!
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