The VIX: Not Dead Yet? March 24 Stock Market Preview
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Tonight’s YouTube video focuses on SPX, QQQ, IWM, IGV, and PLTR, so check it out if you have a few minutes. You can view tonight’s and prior YouTube videos by clicking Community at the top of our homepage to find our YouTube channel link.
There’s some irony in looking at the VIX, which basically had a flash crash pre-market down to a 20-handle around 7:15 am eastern time. You would think the persistent selling of the last several weeks would have made indices more at risk of a flash crash, but I digress.
Despite the market pushing higher to start the day, and closing well above Friday’s close, the VIX rebound creates a negative divergence that requires my attention in coming days.
Looking at the chart below, we see the VIX maintaining the steep uptrend and holding above key moving averages, while the daily volume (in light blue) was highest at the 30 and 40 strikes.
QQQ retested the declining HMA and 9 SMA, rejecting both resistance levels and closing below the cash open.
We still see net negative GEX for QQQ, yet it has improved a lot since Friday. 570 and 590 are currently the largest net GEX clusters, with 570 appearing relatively larger compared to last week.
Further upside attempts may begin to look more bullish if we can see 600 recaptured on a daily close, and further downside toward 570 may be another potential long entry, depending on shifts in GEX and price action at that time.
SPX also tested the HMA and 9 SMA, continuing the validate the significance of the indicators themselves, and holding merely 3 points above the HMA.
I’ve excluded 0 DTE GEX and volume, revealing a picture that is somewhat negative, though volume is fairly dispersed across an 800-point range.
Continued upside targeting 6700-6800 may give a better indication of whether or not we’re seeing the tables turn, or if these backtests are destined to fail.
Immediate failure toward new lows may find support near 6400, the lower edge of the lower Dealer Cluster zone and the location of the lower Keltner channel.
One interesting post-OpEx development with SPX is the current largest net GEX cluster appears to be a big negative cluster at 6475 expiring March 31.
We keep an open mind regarding the potential for the GEX picture to change in coming days as we approach the end of the month (and quarter) next Monday, so we’ll be watching for signs daily regarding the relevance (if any) of 6475 approaching next week. For now, 6475 might be a GEX area to watch as a potential target.
We hope you’ll join us in Discord where we’ll take a look at the 0 DTE picture tomorrow as we navigate toward the end of the month!
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