Bullish IWM, Bullish VIX? March 26 Stock Market Preview
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The VIX: Hasn’t closed below the weekly HMA (the yellow line) since the week ending Jan 4. Will the breach we see hold through Friday, or will the VIX rebound?
We’re still seeing daily volume at higher strikes predominantly: 47.5 and 50 were were favorite strikes today, suggesting speculative concern (at a minimum) of another spike ahead.
The VIX needs to retake 26 to hold the weekly HMA as support.
SPX is shown below excluding 0 DTE GEX and 0 DTE volume, showing a GEX picture that remains with a lower bias, yet volume was predominant at higher strikes today, ranging from 6700-7000.
I would like to see the HMA and 9 SMA curl upward to have more confidence in a larger move up.
Lower targets range from 6300-6500 based on the largest net GEX clusters.
QQQ rejected another test of the 9 SMA, but I do see a positive in QQQ retaking the HMA.
However, the continued downward trend of the moving averages and QQQ’s large negative GEX clusters between 570-580 remain as risks to a sustainable bounce.
QQQ needs to hold prior lows and move sideways (or hold an upside move above 595) for a few days to start improving the overall chart, in my opinion.
IWM presents perhaps the most bullish picture in my view, showing potential early signs of a rebound with the retaking of key moving averages and seeing those averages turn upward.
IWM is still quite extended above the HMA at 244.82, and we still see GEX at 240 and lower, so immediate risk of retracement does exist.
I’d like to see any backtests of 245 hold relatively close to that area to support continuation higher from a higher low.
IWM’s 3D graph supports the idea of a backtest, with the largest net GEX cluster existing for Friday at the 243 strike, representing what I view as a modest overshoot of the 245 zone I’d like to see hold.
Even better would be an intraday test of 243 and then a close above 245, leaving a candle wick.
We ultimately don’t know what will happen, but we have several scenarios and levels to watch, so let’s see what the intraday GEX picture looks like Thursday. We’ll share some observations in Discord and we hope you’ll join us for the discussion!
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