Approaching The Final OpEx Friday Of 2025: December 18 Stock Market Preview
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You can view today’s YouTube video here, where we discuss today’s carnage from a slightly varied angle, so check it out if you have a few minutes!
The VIX closed out its monthly option expiration just over the 16 level, then rallied during the cash session, almost reaching the 18 strike.
Net GEX is positive for the VIX as we begin the new January option cycle, and the daily chart shows a rising trend above the Hull Moving Average.
The VIX is holding (so far) below the key weekly resistance levels created by the 9-SMA at 18.03 and the Hull at 18.64, which will be key for the VIX to overcome if it’s going to spike to higher levels.
While SPX’s net GEX at the 7000 strike has decreased relative to the now largest positive net GEX cluster at 6800, bulls may be due for a relief bounce, perhaps matching the VIX approaching resistance.
SPX is almost to the 6700 lower Dealer Cluster zone, and SPX’s price is extended quite far below the daily Hull, so mean reversion and reconvergence with that declining line (currently 6851.43) may happen fairly soon.
QQQ tells a similar story: The big picture is not looking very positive, and net GEX overall is in solid negative territory, but QQQ is a bit extended to the downside, and the 600 strike is an important GEX area as well.
A retest of the Hull downtrend line at 618.71 wouldn’t be surprising, though we need to reassess what happens from there. The upper Keltner channel is just above the 640 area, which is looking quite far away currently, but it aligns with the upper Dealer Cluster zone.
IWM paints the most bullish technical picture, in my view, with IWM’s price just now testing the Hull on the weekly chart. While below the important 250 GEX cluster, any further downside toward 240 currently appears to be a buying opportunity in a solid uptrend.
The daily chart is fairly well aligned in terms of the Keltner channels, and IWM is also extended quite far below the Hull at 254.90, representing a potential bounce opportunity.
We’ll share new observations pertaining to the evolving picture intraday tomorrow, so we hope you’ll join us in Discord for more!
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