SPX 7000 Now Or Later? November 3 Stock Market Preview
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In tonight’s YouTube video, we discuss the broader indices as well as the VIX, BTC, PLTR, and TSLA, so check it out if you have a few minutes!
SPX closed above Thursday’s close, yet we saw a lower low and a lower high. SPX also remains below the Hull Moving Average on the daily chart.
While current momentum appears to be fairly neutral (potentially leaning negative), we are on the doorstep of a large GEX area at 6800, which may act as support for any further decline. Downside action beyond 6800 may ultimately reach 6700, based on the current GEX picture.
With large net positive GEX resting at 7000 for various dates between November 21 and December 31, it’s hard to imagine SPX not attempting to reach 7000 between now and the end of the year.
Assuming the accuracy of the premises laid out by GEX, that 7000 is indeed a potential “magnet” by year end, are we more likely to see that target reached now, or closer to year end?
Let’s see if we can incorporate data from other indices to help us in evaluating the question of now or later, starting with QQQ:
QQQ shows a similar close below the Hull, but QQQ did make a higher low and higher high Friday, so there’s one set of differences for you.
The Keltners continue rising in bullish fashion, though QQQ did close below the key GEX area at 630, potentially opening the door to 625, and eventually 600, if we don’t resume the climb toward 650 fairly immediately.
IWM still appears to be the most bearish of the three, spending multiple days below the Hull, and not even retesting the Hull as of Friday.
That said, If you look at the last 2 times IWM printed 6-7 daily bars that ranged from high to low, IWM gapped up or resumed a climb from that point forward, so the pattern supports a potential rally from IWM in the next couple of days.
GEX certainly suggests the pattern may fail this time, with 235 and 240 looming with significant GEX clusters, but we view IWM 245 as the gatekeeper for whether or not the rally scenario will materialize or not.
The VIX has shown strength for several days in a row, testing the big negative GEX cluster at 18, so far rejecting from that level.
The VIX is above the Hull, signaling positive technical momentum and giving us a current floor for any decline at 16.16.
Considering the 2-hour and 4-hour Trading View charts, which I haven’t included here, I view 17 (closer to 17.05, actually) as the key area for the VIX, given that the area marks important support on those timeframes.
Below 17 and the VIX has better odds of reaching 15, but retesting and holding 17 likely adds strength to the view that the VIX might need to retest 18-20 before reassessing the situation.
While we’re largely through the most important earnings of Q3, we still have PLTR reporting tomorow, and AMD Tuesday, each of which could impact the overarching QQQ.
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