Bulls On Autopilot: What’s A Pullback? October 7 Stock Market Preview
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Here’s the link to tonight’s YouTube video. We cover SPX, QQQ, the VIX, AMD, AMZN, and more, so check it out!
SPX GEX gave us a fairly clear 6750 target right at the open, which we shared in our Discord 0 DTE channel. The high today was less than a point below 6750, so I’d call that “close enough.”
The rising Keltner channels maintain a bullish trajectory, with the upper Keltner at 6796 almost matching the largest net GEX at 6800, making 6800 a high probability target.
Net GEX remains positive and price maintains above the Hull Moving Average, and with 6800 less than 1% away, another push higher seems assured (as much as anything is assured in trading/investing, which means no assurance, but..alright, emphasis on “seems”).
Note that GEX drops off fairly considerably after 6800, until you get to the 7000 strike. Most of the GEX at 7000 has a 12/31 expiration date, so for my purposes (and combined with how far away the Keltner channels are at this point), 7000 is not a factor with good odds at this exact moment in time.
A loss of the Hull at 6711 and then a loss of the big positive and negative GEX area at 6700 would signal a short-term trend change, bringing 6500-6600 into focus.
Sorry, getting a bit winded on SPX, but note that the upper Keltner channel on the weekly chart- 6836- is almost a perfect 2000 points higher than the April 7 low at 4835. Any conspiracy theorists want to bet on a 6835 short-term high on October 7? 2000 points and 6 months to the day from the April low? Nope, didn’t think so.
QQQ almost hit the big 610 GEX cluster that we’ve been eyeing, but the Keltners continue moving higher, and we now see more GEX at 615 and 620 than previously seen. GEX does drop off considerably beyond 620.
For QQQ, bears really need price to close below 600 on a daily basis to open the doors to 580, which still shows considerable negative GEX looking out to October 17, making it a valid target in the event of a pullback.
IWM made a higher low and higher high today, despite the red candle.
A proper tag of 250 hasn’t yet occurred since we saw the big GEX cluster pop up at 250, so while not a requirement for a pullback, reaching 250 still seems likely.IWM also still seems likely to experience reversal around 250-252, and volume continues at lower strikes, though now subtly higher than the 225-230 area where we saw elevated volume day after day in recent weeks. 233-236 was in focus today.
IWM also saw net GEX decline two days in a row, now almost back to zero. QQQ only just today crossed back into positive territory. Both indices are well off GEX highs despite price making new highs, a negative divergence.
Lastly, let’s take a look at the VIX. The VIX did complete last week above both the weekly Hull and the weekly 9-SMA, the first time in 6 weeks, a potential positive sign.
The daily chart still shows a tight rising pattern along the Hull, with today marking a higher high and a higher low, despite the slightly lower close.
A spike to 20-25 is still entirely possible, though the VIX is on a sell signal on a 2-hour and 4-hour basis, so the 17-strike needs to be regained to open the door to those higher strikes.
Overall, we see bullish momentum continuing, and all major indices have slightly higher targets that make logical sense when we include GEX+certain indicators.
The VIX has been consistently divergent for several weeks, and we’re close enough to likely reversal zones in major indices that we feel it’s time to be prepared for yet another pullback soon, especially if we see SPX 6800, IWM 250, and/or QQQ 610-615.
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