Indices experienced a modest selloff today, unsurprisingly given the large move higher over the last 2-3 days. Importantly, indices are holding above key levels so far, maintaining the bias toward the long side. In our last newsletter until Sunday, let’s look at where GEX stands and we’ll look ahead at Friday and next week.

Most of today’s move was in the pre-market gap up, but with some technical resistance overcome, let’s reassess where we are and incorporate GEX into that picture. DIA vindicated our idea that it would lead the way higher, so the positive divergence worked this time around.

Indices tested important resistance today, with SPX and QQQ surpassing the Hull moving average intraday before retreating to close below the Hull and red for the day. Meanwhile, DIA diverged positively, closing above the Hull and near highs of the day. With CPI tomorrow and OpEx approaching Friday, we are at an interesting juncture and hopefully we’re at the doorstep of big opportunity at the middle of the first month of 2025.

DIA led the bounce Morning, which was identified as a logical possibility in our recent newsletters and YouTube videos. As we proceed through OpEx week, let’s look more closely at potential catalysts on the earnings and economic calendar, as well as a current look at GEX as of the end of today.

Friday ended the week on a negative note, with indices gapping down and sliding further while the VIX climbed. As we enter monthly option expiration week, and earnings are right around the corner, is this really the time to be doubling down on a short bias? Let’s take a look at what clues we see using GEX for the indices.

Volatility continued today, with indices struggling at different moments to erase the onset of more red. While concerning signals remain, we see the anticipated outperformance by DIA and the traditionally bullish OpEx week approaching as reasons to stay on our toes as we look toward the next and last trading day of the week on Friday.

Today gave us the answer to yesterday’s question of whether or not we’re out of the woods, but as we pointed out, these up and down moves are all within the context of the broader trend. While we have specific levels we’re watching to signal invalidation of the bull market, for now, we need to think tactically about what is next and what will trigger our next moves.

Today’s gap up annihilated bears counting on Friday’s gains to be reversed. This move fits in with our assessment of the odds favoring some sort of rebound from oversold conditions. But are we out of the woods? DIA and IWM might be signaling a weaker, temporary rebound, even if we do rally this week and next.

Was Friday a relief bounce, or the beginning of something larger? It may be the beginning of a larger move, especially with the January 17 concentration of some of the postive clusters we’re watching, but volatility is also near support and may rebound soon, potentially dampening further bullishness.

The first trading day of the year saw over a 100-point range on SPX, ending the day 1 point above the 12/19 closing low. Today we look at how we might end the week and whether or not the bull picture is dead.

The last trading day of the year went out with a whimper, but the full year was impressive for the S&P and the Nasdaq especially. Let’s look ahead at some expectations for first two weeks of 2025. Happy New Year and thanks for joining us!

Downside continued today, with SPX barely holding on to the lower Keltner channel and the Dow (DIA) losing the lower Keltner, a reflection of deeply oversold conditions. With tax considerations potentially impacting year-end price action, and beginning of year money flows and reallocation impacting the new year, we may have choppy waters for a few days. Let’s focus on potential merits for DIA over other indices as a rebound candidate. The VIX reacted to the congested support areas we highlighted yesterday, but a less confident picture emerges for the VIX’s next move in the short run.

We saw yet another VIX spike, this time a brief spike that was then crushed Friday despite markets being unable to fully regain their losses on the day. The VIX still closed higher than Thursday’s close. Early signs of DIA outperformance appeared Friday, with an indecision candle forming above the Hull and the lower Keltner channel. GEX remains positive for DIA despite once again flipping negative for SPX. Will we end the year on a bullish note?

The low volume holiday melt up continues as the attempt to selloff failed this morning. Thankfully, GEX signaled that upside was more likely early on. But the VIX is behaving atypically on the surface, rising during a holiday week (since Tuesday). Can the rally continue for another week straight, or will we see an interruption?

Despite early weakness, participants chose a more bullish pathway as the day went on, rallying across the board. We see conflicting signals as we approach the end of the month, and hopefully soon we’ll have better clarity.

We got the VIX spike predicted in part by the various divergences we highlighted, followed by a nice market rebound on OpEx Friday. SMH (semiconductor ETF) has been the leading sector for a large portion of this bull market. Let’s take a look at potential signals SMH might be sending as we approach important crossroads for the market.

We might not be done with the selloff, at least the VIX and QQQ are signaling this possibility. Let’s take a look at what GEX+our charts say about what might be around the corner. We also rolled out an end-of-year promo tonight and added speed/bug enhancements to the website, as well as several hundred new tickers to our GEX Dashboard.

Despite conflicting tactical signals on a micro basis, the larger divergences we’ve pointed out for days played out today, with the VIX spiking and markets dropping. With not even ½ of the month remaining, let’s take a look at any clues as to how we might finish the year.

As we approach the monthly VIX option expiration in the morning and the FOMC announcement later, we see indices diverging, with QQQ appearing to be above the upper Keltner channel while SPX, DIA, and IWM are all near relative low points. Meanwhile, the VIX is approaching the zero gamma area. Are we on the cusp of a major breakdown, or are shorts walking into a trap?

QQQ is on a mission, rallying above the upper Keltner channel. SPX is still negatively diverging, and the VIX and VVIX were both positive. While divergences do not help regarding exact timing, it might be time to have an eye toward caution ahead.