SPX Versus QQQ: Which Picture Wins?
The trading week ending July 2nd saw SPX recapture the weekly 9 SMA, the Mag 7 stocks show some signs of life, the VIX with the lowest weekly close since May 25, and yet QQQ closed below key indicators with negative GEX. The semiconductors certainly deserve some credit (or blame) for QQQ’s divergence, but does this divergence mean QQQ is the canary in the cobalt mine? We’re willing to give SPX the benefit of the doubt until proven otherwise, but let’s look at key levels in each direction.
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SPX Maintains Potential To Retest 7600
SPX recaptured the weekly 9 SMA last week after losing it the prior week for the first time in months, which looks bullish upon first glance. Given the large GEX cluster at 7500, bulls want to see a daily close above 7500 to open the door to 7550 and potentially 7600. While the Keltner channels still look bullish, the HMA at 7639 is flat, reflecting interruption of the steep uptrend that we saw through May. If the GEX picture remains as we see it now, any attempt at 7600-7639 is likely to be met with consolidation or reversal. Very little GEX remains above 7600 comparatively until you get to the 8000 strike, so a shift in GEX would help solidify a more bullish picture beyond 7600.
This Week’s Picture Suggests 7400-7600 Continues As A Likely Range
The chart below shows daily candles, and the GEX picture only shows GEX expiring between Monday and Friday, so the full week only. SPX held Friday’s retest of the HMA and other moving averages, which looks constructive, and we’re watching 7500 as the gateway to 7600 or 7400, similar to what we said in our discussion of the weekly chart and the total GEX picture.
Key Levels: Bullish above 7500 targeting 7550, then 7600. Bearish below 7445 targeting 7400, then 7350 (less likely in our view).
QQQ Closed Below The 9 SMA, But No New High Or Low
QQQ’s weekly candle does not look great, with a long wick above the 9 SMA and a close below it. But no new high or low has been printed since the prior week, and QQQ is holding above the big GEX area at 700, so we’re still viewing SPX as the clearer signal looking ahead. The lower concentration in SPX amongst semiconductors also contributes toward our view, and if software plus Mag 7 can carry some weight for QQQ (or a resurgence in the semis), QQQ can certainly play “catch up” with SPX in retesting its own HMA around 750.
QQQ’s Daily Chart Looks Weak
QQQ closed below all but the 50 EMA on my daily chart, so it’s not a strong look. But my indicators aside, price action has been mixed and largely reflects continuation of a mostly sideways consolidation since early June. A break and daily close below 700 is required to make me shift toward a more bearish view, but for now, QQQ may be rangebound between 700-730 with a break above 730 potentially seeing a retest of 740-750.
Key Levels: Bullish above 715, targeting 730. Bearish below 710, targeting 700, then 690.
The VIX Is Near The Lower End Of Its Recent Range Again
The VIX is below 16, and 2026 has shown very few days spent below 15, so the VIX may be near a low again. The GEX picture is mostly concentrated on 16-17, so GEX also suggest we might see a floor near current levels. The VIX can move sideways for quite some time, so being near a floor doesn’t guarantee a spike higher by any means, but the risk of a spike higher is real as long as the VIX can retake the 16 strike.
Key Levels: Bullish (for volatility) above 17.5 targeting 20, then 22-25. Bearish below 16, but likely with limited downside approaching the 15 strike.
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