Bottom Is In- Or April Fools? April 1st Stock Market Preview
Get $300 off of the annual Portfolio Manager subscription by entering code EASTER2026 at checkout! This won’t last much longer.
Tonight’s YouTube video looks at SPX, IWM, the VIX, and NFLX, so check it out! You can view the most recent and prior YouTube videos by clicking Community at the top of our homepage to find our YouTube channel link.
The anticipated bounce today was the biggest day since May 2025, so bulls have finally lifted their heads above the tall grass (insert livestock analogy here. AI? Any help? AI? Are you there?).
Yesterday I brought up two of many possibilities that resonated with me, stated (in part) as follows:
“a big rally to retest the weekly moving averages between 6600-6700 before working our way back down to 6000.”
The 2nd one involved a daily close above 6583 to raise the odds of a retest of 7000.
I should clarify a “gray area” in terms of the 6583 close and the previous range of 6600-6700 being mentioned. While closing above 6583 certainly raises the odds of reaching 7000 in my mind, it’s really the weekly 9 SMA at 6703.33 (so close to 6700) that would be more convincing. So I definitely see danger for both sides in that 100-point zone of 6600-6700.
Glancing at today’s action, my conclusion is that we need more time to build confidence in the next directional move. The moving averages and the Keltner channels are still reflecting a solid downtrend, and even the daily chart reflects immediate overhead risk from today’s short squeeze.
Non-0 DTE volume was still higher at 6000 than any other strike, and net GEX is still concentrated at lower strikes.
While SPX saw a sharp increase in net GEX, poking just above the zero line into positive GEX territory, a closer look reveals the entirety of this positive GEX was concentrated upon 0 DTE strikes that are now expired, leaving the net negative picture visible above.
Glancing at our 3D surface model, we see 7000 is now well represented by positive GEX expiring June 18.
Looking immediately ahead at this week, we see the largest combination of GEX clusters ranging from 6250-6375 expiring April 2, and 6600+ looking out to April 6-7.
I personally view such data as an indication that we still have risk to the downside as we proceed through the last two trading days of the week (Friday markets are closed), but we may end up with a higher low and continuation higher next week. This speculative possibility needs to be monitored over the next two days for confirmation or incorporating any shift in GEX data that may occur.
QQQ is also “stuck” in a steep downtrend..Until it’s not. Current resistance at the 9 SMA is also just below the large GEX cluster at 580. We don’t see very much GEX above 580 yet, with most of the net GEX concentrated between 550-580.
Note that yesterday we saw QQQ reflecting a more positive net picture prior to today’s rally. Will today’s negative shift play out with the same correlation? We’ll find out shortly.
QQQ capturing 590 again and holding above that area would start to look more bullish, but volume and GEX aren’t yet reflecting that expectation. Things can change quickly, so we’ll watching.
The VIX saw a big drop today, and VVIX is also down a lot, but neither one has invalidated the potential for this lengthy uptrend to continue for volatility.
The weekly 9 SMA at 24.19 is the next area to watch for potential reversal on my chart after the big GEX cluster at 25.
Remember, last week we highlighted the VIX dropping below the rising HMA on the weekly chart, risking the first close below the line since January 4. Obviously the VIX recovered back above the line by last Friday, maintaining the streak. Will this week be the same? A long tail on the weekly candle with a close back over the line? If I knew, I wouldn’t be dictating this newsletter verbally to my beloved domesticated pet muskrat that I’ve taught to type (soon to be replaced by AI, don’t worry).
We hope you’ll join us in Discord for discussion around real-time observations tomorrow!
To enter Discord as a non-subscriber, go to our homepage and click on Community to enter our Discord server! First-time guests receive a free 7-day trial of the premium Discord channels and this is where we discuss what’s happening in real-time. Thanks for reading!
We conduct a livestream that is accessible from our homepage every day around 10:30am ET, so feel free to join us there. You can also listen to our most recent livestream any time before the next day’s livestream occurs.
Get a big $300 discount for the annual Portfolio Manager subscription by entering EASTER2026 at checkout!
Thanks for being part of our community and know that we invite and appreciate your feedback!
The information provided by Geeks of Finance LLC is for educational purposes only and is not intended to be, nor should be construed as, an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security or instrument or to participate in any transaction or activity. Please view our Investment Adviser Disclaimer and Risk Disclosure.
