Looking For An SPX Bounce: March 30 Stock Market Preview
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SPX saw the weekly 50 EMA tested last week, yet we closed 17 points above it, which is what bulls would want to see, particularly given the extension below the weekly HMA and 9 SMA.
The chart below displays total gross GEX and Friday’s volume across all expirations except 0 DTE GEX and volume, showing us that GEX and volume at 6000 now exceeds GEX visible at 7000.
While we may be more likely to tag 6000 at some point, the current oversold conditions suggest risk of an upside move first, perhaps to retest key resistance near 6700.
SPX’s daily chart shows net GEX mostly concentrated between 6200-6500, yet we also see Friday’s volume mostly concentrated around 6000, 6500, and 7000.
Considering conflicting signals in terms of volume and GEX, we are in the lower Dealer Cluster zone while overshooting the lower Keltner channel on the daily chart, so risk/reward seems to be tilted toward a rebound at this point.
QQQ may actually be a bit closer to completing a downside move compared to other indices, if we consider the proximity to the lower weekly Keltner channel, the largest net negative GEX cluster at 560, and the distance between Friday’s closing price and the daily HMA.
IWM already tested the 50 EMA last week, actually making a higher low this past week, despite the bearish looking weekly candle.
GEX continues to be concentrated at lower strikes, and we still see 240 looming as a potential target so we can’t be sure if IWM intends on making a new low below 240 or simply retesting it prior to a stronger move up. We’ll look for clues from the 0 DTE picture once the market opens Monday.
Lastly, let’s look at the VIX to temper our bullish expectations: While an upcoming bounce makes sense from a number of angles, we haven’t seen this sort of consistent VIX pattern in recent history, implying the potential for a larger spike or other move that would otherwise come as a surprise.
GEX remains net positive and volume is high at higher strikes, so any bounce in stocks may be met with a “sell the rip” reaction. We’ll monitor the intraday picture and we’ll share anything interesting in Discord. We hope you’ll join us there!
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