VIX Testing Weekly Support: March 17 Stock Market Preview
Get $300 off of the annual Portfolio Manager subscription, enter code SPRING2026 at checkout!
Tonight’s YouTube video looks at today’s rally in SPX, IWM, QQQ, the VIX, and AAPL, so check it out! You can view tonight’s and prior YouTube videos by clicking Community at the top of our homepage to find our YouTube channel link.
With FOMC, monthly VIX options expiring Wednesday, and OpEx Friday, we have plenty of “excuses” for the market to be volatile, though OpEx weeks aren’t typically associated with high volatility. Therefore, my confidence is muted in terms of anticipation (nothing would surprise me this week). We can note some interesting divergences and closing prices for the major indices, so let’s take a closer look.
Starting with the VIX, today’s close was almost 13% lower than Friday’s close, sending the VIX to a few pennies below the rising weekly HMA. This line is significant in that we haven’t seen a weekly close below the line since January 4. The following week marked the beginning of the more pronounced VIX moves to the upside while continuing the December trend of higher lows.
The VIX is still in a positive GEX environment (which we view as “buy the dip” for any ticker that shows net positive GEX, generally speaking), and most of today’s trading volume was above the 25 strike, all the way up to VIX 55.
The 2-hour chart is potentially nearing another turn as well, so the VIX may be at a pivotal spot, with further deflation accelerating, or a spike to new VIX highs coming within days.
In contrast to the VIX closing near the lows of the day, indices also faded substantially from their intraday highs, including IWM.
IWM closed with a red candle due to the cash session selloff, though the closing price was still higher than Friday’s close.
I also view today’s close as a potential short-term positive because IWM technically stayed above the declining HMA for the first time in 10 trading sessions.
IWM does have other offsetting negative factors: Continued negative GEX readings, the largest net clusters extending down to the 230 strike, and elevated volume exclusively at lower strikes.
Are these contrarian signals for IWM, or does IWM have more pain in store before a true bottom is found?
A close above the 50 EMA at 252.30 will start to look more bullish, or an extreme washout lower could also do the trick.
SPX failed to close above the HMA, but the close was barely 2 points away. A move toward 6755 would close the gap from Wednesday while retesting the 9 SMA.
6400-6600 continue to be large GEX clusters worth watching, though we also see 7000 showing positive GEX now as well as elevated daily volume across all expirations.
The purple Keltner channels aren’t easy to see, but they’re still reflecting a downtrend, and the burden is upon the bulls to overcome some of the key technical moving averages between 6755-6838 to start looking more bullish.
QQQ was weak, reaching the 9 SMA (also within the 603-605 range mentioned in last night’s newsletter) but rejecting. QQQ closed below the HMA as well.
Net GEX improved, but we still see the largest net strikes in negative territory. Overcoming 610 may change this picture.
I also notice QQQ’s largest net GEX cluster expiring OpEx Friday is at the 590 strike, which may be a target sometime before Friday in the event of continued selling. Holding or losing the 600 GEX cluster continues to be the key for the next move, in our view, so we’ll watch action as well as the 0 DTE picture tomorrow as we make some trading decisions.
We’ll monitor and share GEX info in Discord this week as we approach FOMC and the VIX expiration Wednesday. We hope you’ll join us!
To enter Discord as a non-subscriber, go to our homepage and click on Community to enter our Discord server! First-time guests receive a free 7-day trial of the premium Discord channels and this is where we discuss what’s happening in real-time.
We conduct a livestream that is accessible from our homepage every day around 10:30am ET, so feel free to join us there. You can also listen to our most recent livestream any time before the next day’s livestream occurs.
We’re still running an annual discount for the annual Portfolio Manager subscription, though it ends soon, so enter SPRING2026 at checkout!
Thanks for being part of our community and know that we invite and appreciate your feedback!
The information provided by Geeks of Finance LLC is for educational purposes only and is not intended to be, nor should be construed as, an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security or instrument or to participate in any transaction or activity. Please view our Investment Adviser Disclaimer andRisk Disclosure.
