SPX 6000 Enters The Scene? March 16 Stock Market Preview
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“Come on, are they really going to start talking about SPX 6000 after the market drops 6%?” Well, yes, at least for a moment, as we make observations about recent changes in GEX and volume.
We’ve seen a noticeable increase in net GEX at 6000, as well as accompanying daily volume, bringing 6000 to the forefront as the largest net GEX cluster overall. I actually expect to see a rebound (or maybe “backtest” is a better term) somewhere between Friday’s close and the 6500 level, but I view the shift toward 6000 as more meaningful looking out beyond OpEx.
Looking at strikes closer to Friday’s close, 6500 and 6600 are larger net GEX clusters than at any other strike, with 6400 and 7000 falling just behind, in terms of total net GEX as of Friday’s close.
Within the context of a current downtrend, important technical upside resistance tests (according to my indicators, which may be different compared to yours) include 6730 and 6768, with 6466-6500 as my initial downside target range to watch for a potential rebound.
Friday’s close was the lowest close since November, so we’re on watch for signs of a bottom, with no technical reversal signals visible as of yet, despite some indications that we’re at or near potential contrarian zone where a reversal might occur.
Taking a quick look at the Data Graph, we can see that SPX net GEX is still negative (in fact even more negative than any time over the last month), yet SPX is still not at an extreme reading that would qualify as a contrarian buying opportunity when compared to net GEX readings over the last year. This doesn’t mean that SPX can’t reverse higher, but it does mean that we haven’t yet reached an extreme reading where we would be more confident in a low being formed.
I also find it curious that the net GEX at the 7000 strike has flipped from positive to negative. We’ve watched the important total gross GEX at 7000 going on months, and it continues to be important, but we haven’t seen meaningful net GEX at that strike. We’ll continue monitoring shifts in GEX at 7000 as change may be afoot.
QQQ continues showing important GEX at 600, and we saw a new low since November with Friday’s close at 593.72. I view the close below 600 as potentially significant, though QQQ really needs to close below Monday’s intraday low to begin looking more negative.
The declining trendlines at 603.43-604 appear to represent the most important short-term areas of interest beyond 600 if we see QQQ attempt a rebound, but otherwise, the lower Keltner near 565 or the lower edge of the lower Dealer Cluster at 580 appear to be the current downward momentum favorites we’ll be watching.
The VIX didn’t make a higher high last week, but we do see the continued pattern of generally higher lows, and the VIX closed above the key HMA by almost 1%.
GEX remains positive with 30-35 representing the largest positive strikes above the current level.
A loss of 24 increases the odds of a trip to 20, which will really make the current VIX trend appear broken and ripe for a larger reversal downward, in my view.
IWM continues showing GEX and volume at lower strikes, with 235-240 becoming particularly interesting as far as possible downside targets.
The chart overall looks more constructive than QQQ, as an example, and retaking 250 would imply a possible rebound in play for IWM. We’ll be watching this very closely.
Lastly, IWM historical GEX is finally nearing the -2B extreme reading we consider to be a desirable contrarian signal, so perhaps IWM is leading the way toward a possible short-term reversal during OpEx week? We’ll monitor and share info in Discord this week that we find interesting along these lines. We hope you’ll join us!
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