The VIX Trend Is Higher: February 24 Stock Market Preview
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Today’s drop in QQQ once again tested the lower Dealer Cluster zone at 600, also testing the daily HMA.
The close above these areas leaves open the possibility of a move higher, countered by the current trend being lower and a negative GEX picture.
If QQQ can hold 600 and exceed 610 again, 620 becomes possible, though the GEX picture currently indicates most of the larger GEX targets are at lower strikes, especially from 580-590.
SPX remains below the weekly HMA at 6937.88 the 9 SMA at 6903, and the 15 EMA at 6844.24, with 6800 still showing to be an important area for SPX, both technically and in terms of GEX.
SPX needs to get back above the 6905 zone (the zero gamma line and 9 SMA) to increase the odds of retesting the 7000 area.
Continuation below 6800 places attention on the previous low at 6776 for a retest, or possibly a new low.
SPX has spent a lot of time since February 1 in negative GEX territory, and brief excursions back into positive territory have been met with a quick move back down.
Ideally (though not required), we might see an extreme negative GEX reading that may serve as a contrarian buy signal, or a GEX move higher that seems to precede SPX’s price moving up consistently.
VVIX, the index measuring future expected volatility of the VIX itself, has a similar upward pathway and a series of higher lows. The current move since January has largely been consolidating in sort of a triangle, though the upper Keltner channel pointing higher and VVIX holding above key moving averages may imply VVIX moving toward 135-140.
If VVIX were to do this, we would expect the VIX to potentially follow, spiking toward a higher level.
The VIX regained the daily HMA as it maintains the steep uptrend, and we now see positive GEX overall for the VIX, a possible sign of continuation toward the 25 strike. The current pattern certainly won’t begin to look like it’s failing until we see a daily close below 18, in my view.
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