Nearing An OpEx Inflection? February 20 Stock Market Preview
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SPX closed a point above the declining HMA, holding modest gains from the last two days.
Using our new GEX filter, I excluded today’s 0 DTE GEX , also applying the filter to today’s volume at each strike, painting a speculative picture of potential upside tomorrow.
Option volume was highest at the 7000 strike, with 6900 also seeing elevated volume.
Looking to the 3D Graph, the two largest GEX clusters expiring tomorrow are at 6825 and 7000. A move to 7000 would be about 2% from here, fairly large but entirely possible. Given the proximity of 6825 to the current price, we could see the full range tomorrow, though that’s only one of several possibilities.
QQQ’s HMA is starting to flatten out slightly, and the 9 SMA has actually curled upward. Is this an early sign of an upcoming move for QQQ?
Looking at the GEX picture strictly for tomorrow, we see large GEX areas at 600, 605, and 610 currently. This can obviously shift tomorrow, so we want to see how the 0 DTE picture unfolds after the cash session begins, but a move toward 610 may even stretch as far as 615, which would test the 50 EMA and the middle daily Keltner channel from below.
Failure below 600 still opens the possibility to 590, though 580 seems less likely so quickly, based on GEX.
IWM looks more bullish, printing higher lows after almost tagging 255 earlier in February.
The consolidation along the series of moving average indicators may be nearing a point where a bigger move can happen, with 270-275 being possible.
260 is the key area to hold in order to paint a prettier potential upside picture. Below 260, we can see 250 come into play.
The VIX closed below the daily HMA, but the steep uptrend has been maintained so far. Market bulls may want to at least see the VIX retest 18 as indices head toward higher potential targets previously discussed, though the VIX really needs to break 18 to the downside to increase the odds of a trip back to VIX 15.
Holding above 18 keeps alive a pathway toward the upper Dealer Cluster at 25.
We’ll share some of our observations in our free Discord channel tomorrow, and we hope you’ll join us!
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