SPX Support Holds-for Now: February 12 Stock Market Preview
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Today’s YouTube video covers SPX, QQQ, the VIX, IWM, DIA, AMZN, and COIN, so check it out by clicking Community at the top of our homepage to find the link to our YouTube channel!
SPX’s intraday low was 6914.67, pretty close to the 6914 I mentioned in last night’s newsletter. This retest of key moving averages on the daily chart successfully held so far, with SPX closing at 6943.9.
On the surface, holding above key support appears to be a good sign that SPX still has a chance to overcome key resistance at 7000, though not conclusive.
Net GEX declined slightly, and overall, we are still hovering in the same range we’ve seen since December.
Bulls would presumably be encouraged by a close above 7000, targeting the upper Dealer Cluster zone at 7100, though a break below the GEX cluster at 6900 risks 6800-6850, which hasn’t changed since yesterday.
QQQ’s chart still looks less positive, and the moving averages are in a steeper decline, with price struggling to stay on top.
The intraday retest of 607.69 (approximately the Hull Moving Average) did result in a wick back up, which is positive. We noted the large 607 GEX cluster expiring Friday, so it’s interesting that we basically reached that area today.
Holding above 600 may be constructive, creating a double-bottom appearance on the chart and perhaps allowing for another rebound attempt, and rallying above 620 would also be a good sign for bulls.
The current negative GEX picture and downtrend since late January presents a potential headwind though, so we need GEX+price action to prove to us that QQQ is headed for better (higher) days ahead, if such a shift is set to occur.
IWM also retested the 262 area, holding above the very tight cluster of the HMA, 9 SMA, and 15 EMA, and continuing to hold above 260 keeps bull dreams alive.
The Keltners look bullish and a pathway to 280 is possible, though we can’t entirely exclude the possibility of a 250 test, either. The lower target would complicate the attractiveness of the chart and potentially require more time (or a strong whipsaw move) to recover back to new highs.
While QQQ is trending sideways to down lately, IWM has been respecting a rising trendline, a contrasting picture that warrants a close eye.
The VIX and IWM have been moving in the same direction, with a rising trendline since late December for the VIX. Today’s bounce stopped just shy of 19, failing at the HMA and also closing below the 9 SMA.
The uncertainty across the board leaves us focused on certain key levels without having strong conviction toward which direction is most likely. The VIX still holds the trend despite the rejection above, so a larger spike can still occur.
Breaking below 17 may start to change the appearance of the chart, and with monthly VIX expiration approaching next Wednesday, we remain open to a variety of possibilities.
Zooming in on the 4-hour VIX chart, we still see a setup for a VIX spike, with the VIX holding the HMA, and the HMA has stabilized after the recent downtrend.
The upper Keltner channel is just under 23, and we’ve noted the positive GEX at 25, which is not too far away. Keep an eye on 18 as a possible area that could serve as a line-in-the-sand for the VIX to spike even higher, or- as mentioned above- watch the break of 17 to potentially signal a more negative shift for the VIX.
As always, we will revisit the total picture as we approach the cash session in the morning.
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