Rebound Attempt Rejected? November 6 Stock Market Preview
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A brief look at IWM’s weekly chart shows a bounce attempt before 240 was reached, holding the important 243 9-period SMA intact. The next directional move is unclear, though holding 243 increases the likelihood of 243 acting as support.
The IWM daily chart show price rejecting off of the 9-SMA and Hull Moving Average inflection point, potentially opening the door to 240 and 235 below.
Volume was particularly elevted at 230 and 232 strikes, a speculative metric admittedly, yet one that points to interest amonst participants in potentially lower prices.
SPX spent a lot of time over the last five months between the 9-SMA and the Hull, so the last 3 weeks above the weekly Hull raise suspicion as to the sustainability of such a move above the weekly Hull.
A retest of the 9-SMA at 6694 would not be surprising based on history.
The daily chart also shows rejection near the 6837.16 9-SMA, with the declining Hull at 6877.52 potentially acting as an important resistance area if SPX surpasses 6837.
As long as we remain below 6837, SPX 6700 is an initial possibility.
To add to the most recent statement, 6700 is the largest GEX cluster set to expire November 7, bringing the possibility of a further decline into the forefront as we approach Friday.
The VIX also tested important support in the 17.50 range, potentially opening the door to another attempt at 20-25, yet we also see Hull support at 16.66, slightly below the GEX-indicated 17 area.
QQQ also retested the 9-SMA at 627, rejecting and facing possible effort toward the 610-615 area. 630 also remains as a possible upside target and pivot if QQQ can maintain above 620.
Interestingly, and possibly a feather in the cap of the bears, GEX for QQQ has shifted to reflect the largest GEX cluster at 610 expiring November 14, implying potential downside into next week, even if an intermittent bounce carries us slightly higher.
We’ll monitor any potential shifts in GEX in coming days so we can evaluate such changes in light of what we see with price action as well.
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