Was Friday a relief bounce, or the beginning of something larger? It may be the beginning of a larger move, especially with the January 17 concentration of some of the postive clusters we’re watching, but volatility is also near support and may rebound soon, potentially dampening further bullishness.

The first trading day of the year saw over a 100-point range on SPX, ending the day 1 point above the 12/19 closing low. Today we look at how we might end the week and whether or not the bull picture is dead.

The last trading day of the year went out with a whimper, but the full year was impressive for the S&P and the Nasdaq especially. Let’s look ahead at some expectations for first two weeks of 2025. Happy New Year and thanks for joining us!

Downside continued today, with SPX barely holding on to the lower Keltner channel and the Dow (DIA) losing the lower Keltner, a reflection of deeply oversold conditions. With tax considerations potentially impacting year-end price action, and beginning of year money flows and reallocation impacting the new year, we may have choppy waters for a few days. Let’s focus on potential merits for DIA over other indices as a rebound candidate. The VIX reacted to the congested support areas we highlighted yesterday, but a less confident picture emerges for the VIX’s next move in the short run.

We saw yet another VIX spike, this time a brief spike that was then crushed Friday despite markets being unable to fully regain their losses on the day. The VIX still closed higher than Thursday’s close. Early signs of DIA outperformance appeared Friday, with an indecision candle forming above the Hull and the lower Keltner channel. GEX remains positive for DIA despite once again flipping negative for SPX. Will we end the year on a bullish note?

The low volume holiday melt up continues as the attempt to selloff failed this morning. Thankfully, GEX signaled that upside was more likely early on. But the VIX is behaving atypically on the surface, rising during a holiday week (since Tuesday). Can the rally continue for another week straight, or will we see an interruption?

Despite early weakness, participants chose a more bullish pathway as the day went on, rallying across the board. We see conflicting signals as we approach the end of the month, and hopefully soon we’ll have better clarity.

We got the VIX spike predicted in part by the various divergences we highlighted, followed by a nice market rebound on OpEx Friday. SMH (semiconductor ETF) has been the leading sector for a large portion of this bull market. Let’s take a look at potential signals SMH might be sending as we approach important crossroads for the market.

We might not be done with the selloff, at least the VIX and QQQ are signaling this possibility. Let’s take a look at what GEX+our charts say about what might be around the corner. We also rolled out an end-of-year promo tonight and added speed/bug enhancements to the website, as well as several hundred new tickers to our GEX Dashboard.

Despite conflicting tactical signals on a micro basis, the larger divergences we’ve pointed out for days played out today, with the VIX spiking and markets dropping. With not even ½ of the month remaining, let’s take a look at any clues as to how we might finish the year.

As we approach the monthly VIX option expiration in the morning and the FOMC announcement later, we see indices diverging, with QQQ appearing to be above the upper Keltner channel while SPX, DIA, and IWM are all near relative low points. Meanwhile, the VIX is approaching the zero gamma area. Are we on the cusp of a major breakdown, or are shorts walking into a trap?

QQQ is on a mission, rallying above the upper Keltner channel. SPX is still negatively diverging, and the VIX and VVIX were both positive. While divergences do not help regarding exact timing, it might be time to have an eye toward caution ahead.

Indices continue to seem heavy despite holding impressive year-to-date gains. Will the dam break heading into year end, or will we see a fake breakdown and one last buying opportunity before Santa rallies yet again?

Most indices staged an impressive recovery today on the heels of the CPI report. Red flags are emerging, though, giving us pause in adopting care-free bullishness.

Most indices staged an impressive recovery today on the heels of the CPI report. Red flags are emerging, though, giving us pause in adopting care-free bullishness.

The pullback continued today, with the last of the major indices (QQQ) joining the others with a loss of the Hull Moving Average. We’ll take a look at the GEX picture entering CPI premarket as well as a few levels to watch.

We see what might be the start of a pullback that we’ve been anticipating, but how far it goes will help to paint the picture of what we expect next. Let’s take a look at shifts in today’s GEX landscape.

While SPX and QQQ are in a complete zombie march higher, SMH is barely blinking after being in a coma for a few months. Will SMH wake up and play catch up after QQQ’s catch up already happened, or is it a warning sign for complacent bulls? We don’t have the answer, but we hope you’ll read anyway, and then share with us whether or not the information we present led you to a solid conclusion.

Indices are struggling at the upper Keltner channel, but we still need to see if we can tag 6100 Friday given the large GEX cluster expiring. With VIX and VVIX diverging, we might see a market pullback quite soon.

We continue seeing gamma (GEX) increase at higher levels. But net positive GEX has actually decreased for the last couple of days. Does this divergence (and others) imply that the rally is in danger?