Today’s gamma (GEX) gave some actionable signals on a 0 DTE basis, signaling 5630 SPX and 483 QQQ early on in the day. While attempts to push lower were made, the market bounced back toward those higher targets as the day went on. While we can sometimes look at GEX clusters on certain future expiration dates as an indication of the potential timeframe to reach certain prices, when we’re as granular as looking at same day expirations, there’s no telling what time of day an intraday price target will be hit (at least using GEX alone). So I try to structure a day trade in a way that avoids significant premium burn and allows proper time.
With SPX at theoretical resistance using my chart settings, I wanted to look at other possibilities, just to be aware of alternative scenarios. While I don’t see a new bull market beginning from here, if I zoom out to a weekly timeframe on Keltner channels, 5700 becomes believable. We also have GEX potentially signaling 5750-5800 (don’t forget, Powell speaks Friday).

The daily SPX Keltner channels paint a less bullish picture, showing rejection of a 5620 top channel breach, though we’re holding right at the boundary for now. We have yet to see if the weekly chart will “take over” and result in a higher move before turning down. A completely subjective view that I have based on experience is that sharp moves higher often require TIME to consolidate at a bare minimum, but only time will tell if the pattern forming is a broadening top (as one of many examples) versus a launch pad for another move higher. We can look to GEX for additional clues on the next possible moves.

SPX GEX continues to stay elevated above our bullishly interpreted 1B mark. As long as GEX doesn’t start declining toward the neutral/negative area, we tilt our interpretation of the odds in a bullish direction.

As we can see on the SPX GEX levels chart, levels have shifted higher as we consolidate at these upper Keltner limits. SPX 5750 and 5800 are in focus to the upside.

IWM has spent 3 days teasing bulls and bears alike as to its next move. Today’s tail and closing near the highs, above the middle Keltner channel, looks potentially bullish, a move to 220+ being possible if it can hold this area.

GEX at least supports this possibility, and total GEX for IWM is nearly to zero (again) after spending much of the recent past in negative territory, so we will watch for IWM to hold above 215 for a shot at 220+. I don’t like that we see high option volume at lower strikes, but high volume by itself doesn’t necessarily mean anything.

IWM’s historical GEX shows a recent trend of holding the move up from the lows, though we are firmly in neutral territory at the moment.

A quick look at BTC, since we haven’t looked at BTC GEX in awhile: GEX is positive overall, and we have solid targets at 65k and 70k to watch, with option volume elevated at those higher levels as well. A lot of the recent bullishness doesn’t make sense to me, but hey, I’m not here to understand “why,” I mostly want to figure out where we’re heading.

I was able to give my digital highlighter a little exercise with tomorrow and Friday’s schedules, with several important data points and bond auctions tomorrow, home sales data Friday, and the master printer himself speaking at 10 AM ET Friday. Even if we do move higher, it’s probably a good time to be nimble with shifting our bias given the speed of the ascent recently. Hopefully we’ve pointed out some bullish and bearish considerations for your brain.
GEX still looks bullish, yet the charts look a bit stretched (depending on how you look at it)..Do we hold here or continue the mini blow-off until shorts are no more?
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Thursday’s Preview: Is Resistance Futile?

Daily Preview: Friday, August 23