SPX: Improving Odds Of Testing Higher Resistance

SPX closed above key daily HMA resistance and just 1 point below the weekly 9 SMA. The VIX dropped into the 17s, which looks bullish for indices, though the VIX did stop at a key area that allows for a spike. IWM is actually looking slightly weaker than it has, but IWM still holds above key support. As it stands now, the potential for weakness still exists into tomorrow, but our focus is shifting to what indices do at their next key resistance areas. 7450-7500 for SPX and 730-740 for QQQ.

Members save a special $375 on the annual Portfolio Manager plan with code FREEDOM26 at checkout, which will run through the July 4 holiday.

SPX: All-Time Highs Around The COrner Again?

SPX overcame its daily HMA near the 7400 area to close above the HMA as well as the 15 EMA, the 9 SMA, and likely a number of other indicators. This looks bullish. That said, SPX closed just 1 point below the weekly 9 SMA at 7441. On my chart, this line is the last technical resistance I see until the weekly HMA at 7625, so any push higher could end up with a fast move back to all-time highs. GEX at 7500 doesn’t match any of my indicators, but it is a large GEX cluster, so we can look at 7500 as a stopping point for observation on any subsequent push higher. GEX indicates 7450-7470 has a good chance of being reached tomorrow, contradicted by a more bearish picture for tomorrow on the part of QQQ, but keep in mind that both bullish and bearish targets might be touched tomorrow, depending on the gap in the morning. It’s the final day of the month and the final day of Q2.

Key Levels- bullish over 7450 targeting 7500. Bearish below 7420 targeting 7400 and then 7364.

SPX Net GEX: Back In Positive Territory, Still Neutral

We consider the -1B to +1B range as “neutral” for SPX, where SPX has spent a lot of time over the past year. The direction is positive though, and the swing was a large enough margin to raise the odds of additional positive action as the week progresses, even if we see a dip one day this week.

QQQ: A Little Too Close To SUpport/Resistance For COmfort

QQQ barely closed above the same indicators that SPX conquered by day’s end, which technically checks off the box, but the margin is slim. A small push below 720 jeopardizes progress made by QQQ, and it took a big green candle today to barely close above the line. That said, GEX has moved more positively, just as we saw with SPX, and a continued move above 730 is really what bulls want to see to increase the likelihood of 740-650. There’s a gap up to 735 that could get filled this week. The weekly HMA at 750.66 would be a potential next target beyond 740, though QQQ’s 3D picture suggests we may see another retest of lower levels first.

Key Levels: Bullish above 730 targeting 740-750. Bearish below 715 targeting 700.

QQQ’s 3D model shows 715 as the largest net GEX cluster on the map, with most of it expiring tomorrow. Given that 715 is just a little over 1% lower for QQQ, reaching that is very believable, even if we see an opening gap up, so we’ll be cautious regarding any early strength unless we also see the GEX picture shift a lot right at the cash open (it could also change premarket, but post-open carries a lot more weight for us).

The VIX Could Drop TO 16

The VIX is below key HMA levels on the 2 hour, 4hour, and daily charts, but 16.28 is the HMA on the weekly chart, so the VIX is still holding above the level that maintains the potential for a spike higher, in my view. GEX is also supportive of the VIX holding at or abov 16, based on the current reading. Any spike up to 20 is likely to meet resistance, similar to what we’ve seen every time over the last week, but a break above could likely move fast to 22-25, given the significance of such a break after repeated attempts in the past. The most bullish scenario may be a rangebound VIX that stays between 15-18 with smaller cycles along the way, though there’s no evidence to suggest that that’s the most likely path (or that it’s not).

Key Levels: Bullish for volatility above 18 targeting 20, then 22-25. Bearish below 18 targeting 16-17.

Join The discussion

Tonight’s YouTube video discusses SPX, the VIX, QQQ, PANW, and META, so check it out if you have a few minutes! This video and prior videos can be viewed by clicking Community at the top of our homepage to find our YouTube channel link. We will also try to conduct our usual livestream Thursday!

Non-subscribers can join through Community on our homepage. First-time guests get a free 7-day trial of the premium Discord channels, where we talk through what is happening in real time.

We run a livestream from the homepage every day around 10:30am ET, and you can replay the most recent one any time before the next.

Thanks for being part of our community and know that we invite and appreciate your feedback!

The information provided by Geeks of Finance LLC is for educational purposes only and is not intended to be, nor should be construed as, an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security or instrument or to participate in any transaction or activity. Please view our Investment Adviser Disclaimer and Risk Disclosure.