Cracks Emerging, VIX Awakens: May 13 Stock Market Preview
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Tonight’s YouTube video covers SPX, the VIX, NFLX, GLD, and APP, so give it a look if you have a few minutes! You can view our library of previous videos by clicking Community at the top of our homepage to find our YouTube channel link.
Indices narrowly held support by the close despite the intraday pullback. Meanwhile, semis still losed lower, and the VIX spiked, only to decline to rising support that appears to be a possible reversal area for the next leg higher in volatility.
The 30-minute chart shown doesn’t imply a huge move higher for the VIX, but 19-20 seems reasonable as a target based on indicator readings across multiple timeframes and the current GEX picture, in my view.
We see the significance of the HMA as we glance at the chart below, which shows SPX leaving a small tail that matches perfectly with the rising HMA. The 9-SMA was almost tested as a support level, too.
A daily close below 7389 will increase the odds of a trip down to 7200, in my opinion.
SPX saw net GEX decline for 2 days in a row, which doesn’t seem significant in and of itself, except that we have seen two days of declining GEX in over a month.
1B is still a bullish reading, so bears will want to see at least a neutral to negative reading on SPX net GEX in coming days.
QQQ also dropped below the HMA, only to recover to a level just above it.
QQQ still has a shot at reaching 720, which may happen by Friday. Overall, risk/reward appears tilted toward the downside, even with the current trend being higher and price barely regaining the HMA as of today’s close.
IWM might be the index to worry about the most: While the trend and Keltners point higher, IWM closed below the HMA, and volume continues to be noticeably lacking above the 280 strike.
Is IWM signaling an imminent drop, or can we see the trend continue higher toward 290-300? That is the question we’ll be discussing in Discord, as well as the 284.84 line-in-the-sand level that currently shifts bias either positive or negative.
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