VIX: Nearing Inflection Again? April 28 Stock Market Preview
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Tonight’s YouTube video looks at the latest moves in SPX, the VIX, MU, NVDA, MSFT, and the upcoming earnings season. Check it out if you have a few minutes! You can view this video and our library of previous videos by clicking Community at the top of our homepage to find our YouTube channel link.
The VIX may be approaching a “make or break” moment this week as the HMA has finally reached the same area as the sideways consolidating VIX. Will the VIX simply cross over the HMA and continue drifting with a lower eventual trajectory, or will this collision wake up volatility from a 3-week slumber?
Looking at the gross positive GEX in green and the negative GEX in red, we don’t see a lot of interest below the 17 strike at this time. Most of the GEX and volume has been concentrated on higher strikes.
If we do see a spike, 25 might be the destination.
The 2-hour chart for the VIX seems to have leveled out with a slight upward bias since the 20th, thought today clearly saw crushing action taking the VIX down toward the 18 strike.
Continuation lower may reach 17, the lower Keltner, so we’re still between the 17-18 strikes when considering the 2-hour and daily timeframes.
The %B indicator is another I like to use, and you can look back at the lower section to see how the %B reaching 0.00 or lower is often correlated to bottoming areas for the VIX, with varying degrees of VIX spikes occurring thereafter.
SPX continues the relatively narrow push higher to incremental new highs, and GEX remains concentrated at higher strikes, for the most part.
Volume stays heavy at 7000 though, a level we’ve noted as reflecting continued concentration of positive and negative GEX (the chart below only shows NET GEX), and we think 7000 is a good initial pullback target to watch in coming days.
Looking at specific net GEX clusters on our 3D model, we see 7200 as the largest net cluster for both April 28 and May 1. Last week, we noted the GEX at 7200, which was initially clustered at May 1, then seemed to be more focused on Friday the 24th, now back to either Tuesday the 28th or May 1st.
Regardless, SPX is looking at possible consolidation or a sharper pullback from the upper Dealer Cluster zone, starting at 7200.
QQQ shows the largest net GEX clustered around 675, though volume is elevated mostly at lower strikes.
It remains to be seen whether or not we will keep pushing from an extended starting position toward 7=675, or if we’ll reverse sooner.
With the positive trend and GEX above, it’s hard to try to pick an exact top, and maybe easier to ride the momentum with a tight stop, but upside appears limited at this time.
We’ll watch for intraday changes and we’ll be sure to discuss what we’re seeing in Discord tomorrow, so we hope you’ll join us!
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