SPX Retesting Resistance: April 23 Stock Market Preview

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• The market is giving conflicting signals as we continue incrementally pushing higher, with one of the contradictory signals being the VIX, which appears to be bottoming as key indicators shift higher on smaller timeframes.

• With the VIX currently below the HMA on the 1-hour chart, we might see a drop to the lower Keltner channel at 18, but the GEX picture and my indicators suggest a likelihood of the VIX aiming higher from that point. The first test will be another attempt at 20, then the zero gamma level at 22, and then 25+, depending on how the next pullback shapes up in indices.

• While QQQ crossed below the HMA, the line is still rising, only now starting to turn, ever so slightly. Today’s bounce retested the HMA, with a close below it again, which I believe increases our odds of a pullback.

• The problem with the short signal triggering while the HMA is still rising (well, the problem for bears) is that any drop that materializes maintains a good chance of rebounding back up to that rising line, so any turn downward will likely be a process of enough time passing to wear out the new bulls that are eager to buy the next dip.

• We also see a generally positive GEX picture, even with the decrease in net GEX to less positive readings across the board. IWM is the exception, which dropped back into negative territory.

• Most of the volume today was at lower strikes, particularly 630-640, though we do see positive GEX up to 665 worth noting.

• I went through our GEX expiration menu, deselecting each expiration and watching the change in volume from today, and a lot of the volume at lower strikes was focused on expirations 5-7 days or more out, potentially implying better odds for the bulls of a push in coming days, with headwinds as we look closer to May 1 and beyond, in general.

• I wanted to zoom in on IWM’s chart to look at the 1-hour timeframe instead of the typical day or week timeframe I sometimes choose. We see a bullish trend since March 31, though the upper Keltner is in the early stages of turning down.

• Bulls might take confidence in the fact that IWM closed above key moving averages with a sideways consolidation so far, and even a drop to the lower edge of the channel (also the zero gamma line) around 274 may be met with buying to take IWM up to 280 or 285.

• IWM does have a more obvious focus on lower strikes as we look at daily volume in light blue to the right of the net GEX bars.

• SPX is also below the daily HMA, though its HMA is now almost to 7200, the largest net GEX cluster looking beyond today’s expiration, which I toggled off of the chart. A retest of the HMA could bring SPX to 7200 later this week, which we’ll look at next.

• Before we do that, check out today’s volume, which continues to show an interest in the 7000 area, the 2nd largest volume (Excluding 0 DTE) behind 7150.

• Earlier this week, we noted the 7045 GEX expiring Friday, which is still there, visible as a negative cluster (not labeled due to my overing over 7200) at the bottom right.

• However, we see a shift in the 7200 GEX from May 1 to primarily being concentrated this Friday.

• I interpret this to speculatively suggest we may reach 7200 sooner than originally expected, perhaps even tomorrow. At that time, if a key pivot occurs and we see downside starting into the weekend, we may see a shift in GEX again, hopefully giving us some clues of eventual targets coming up next.

• If the GEX picture remains into Friday’s close, we may start with a gap in either direction Monday, with a fresh look at how participants are positioned for next week.

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