SPX Tackles Extreme Upside Targets: April 15 Stock Market Preview
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SPX continues rocketing toward extreme upside targets, spanning the entirety of a wide Keltner range from almost 6300 to just below 7000 in merely 11 trading sessions. Are shorts out of fashion? I mostly see people wearing pants, so it’s at least possible. Are bears extinct? Definitely endangered. Welcome to OpEx.
In our livestream yesterday, I noted that the Keltner channels have only barely begun to turn upward, and the moving averages are climbing at such a steep ascent that they are likely to meet the upper Keltner channel within a few days (Monday?). This coincidence of conditions- price approaching the upper Keltner, with the HMA likely to cross over at that point- is often a point of consolidation or a sharper drop, also matching the upper Dealer Cluster zone, which spans from 7000-7100.
GEX leans positive, so once a pullback happens (starting from somewhere within the current upper Dealer Cluster, in my view), we will potentially be presented with a buying opportunity from a higher low. Let’s see if VIX monthly options expiration tomorrow can give us a brief reversal (more on that later).
QQQ’s chart almost looks like a carbon copy of SPX since March, with many of the same warnings/conditions in play.
In the event of a pullback, 600 is of interest based on volume and the location of the 50 EMA, though QQQ can climb another 1-2% (based on Keltner channels+GEX levels) first.
IWM continues to show heavy daily volume in the 250-255 range, making that zone an area of interest in the event of a pullback.
I’ve mentioned my proclivity in the past for watching IWM because of the occasional early indication of a turn, and the intraday high did occur earliest with IWM Tuesday. I’ll continue watching IWM as we enter the cash session post-VIX expiration.
An overshoot to 275 is certainly possible, though I don’t think that will negate the potential for a turn lower shortly before SPX and QQQ turn as well.
The VIX gapped down to just below 18 this morning, yet closed with a green candled 2% higher than the intraday low, and we see the 2nd highest daily volume at the 45 strike.
The uptrend is clearly broken, yet we’re now approaching the zone that has served as support going on 2 years, with very little GEX below 17.
The combination of oversold conditions for the VIX and the breaking of the VIX uptrend leads me to prioritize the idea of a VIX rebound to a lower high in the short run, with SPX/QQQ buyers stepping up at a higher low, resulting in a VIX crush back to the 15-17 support area as we make new highs in SPX. I’ll reassess the big picture if/when that occurs.
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