Accelerating Downside: Opportunity? March 9 Stock Market Preview
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Sunday’s YouTube video takes a look at the ongoing carnage in the futures market, addressing SPX, the VIX, GLD, BTC, and PLTR, so give it a quick look for a perspective to consider as we enter Monday’s session. You can view prior YouTube videos by clicking Community at the top of our homepage to find our YouTube channel link.
We’ve exhaustively referenced the rising VIX trendline almost every day, noting that we can find many past instances where these patterns led to a spike. We’ve also noted the curious shift into positive GEX territory for the VIX, which is atypical relative to much of the past year.
Looks like we’re seeing fulfillment of the pattern, with the 30-35 range already being tagged overnight, and we’re uncertain as to how high the spike might take us..Or even how long it might last.
We see positive GEX up to the 50 strike, and smaller GEX clusters up to 80, though the initial focus will be on what happens between 30-35. Does the VIX spike right through it, or do we see these GEX clusters act as potential reversal zones?
Looking at SPX’s weekly chart, also reflecting net GEX as of Friday, we see rejection from the declining set of moving averages shown, closing near lows of the week on Friday.
Negative GEX clusters at 6500 and 6600 especially represent possible downside targets, and the 50 EMA (untouched since April 2025) at 6502 certainly brings attention to the 6500 area.
Negative GEX exists below those numbers in lesser amounts, but the 50 EMA, the lower daily Keltner channel at 6519, and the last relatively large net GEX cluster at 6500 at least warrants considering that zone as an area to watch, in my opinion.
SPX’s net GEX plunged into the close Friday, though GEX can move more negative, so we’ll be watching our GEX Intensity Gauge for any negative readings below the -2.5B level, an area that would be extreme relative to comparisons over the last 52 weeks.
QQQ reflected an even more negative GEX bias as of Friday’s close, with relatively large negative GEX clusters extending down to the 565 area, close to the lower Keltner channel on the daily chart.
It’s worth mentioning that one other indicator rests above the daily lower Keltner: The weekly 50 EMA, which is just over 577, so any loss of the large negative GEX cluster at 585-590 may warrant a look at 577 first, and then 565 for signs of a reversal in play (or lack thereof).
QQQ also saw a sharp decline in net GEX. A negative GEX reading of over -3B would be considered an extreme compared to the past year, possibly indicating a contrarian dip buy opportunity over a longer timeframe than the next day(s).
IWM was already quite extended below the declining HMA, 9 SMA, and 15 EMA, leaving a gap around the 254 mark.
GEX is concentrated on negative strikes, and at least a couple of days last week saw heavy volume at the 240 strike, also near the lower daily Keltner channel.
Futures indicate IWM is trading just above the 242 level, so we’re very close to the 240 GEX cluster already, though only time will tell whether IWM is destined to lead the pack on a rebound from this level or if IWM will instead become even more oversold before turning higher as SPX and QQQ make their way down to similar technical and relative GEX confluences.
IWM closed Friday already near the -2B GEX reading that we consider extreme compared to the past 52 weeks, so it just might be the first place I’ll watch for signs of a market bounce.
Will such a bounce (if it occurs) be temporary, or the beginning of a new trend move higher? We won’t guess on the frontend, though we will have some checkpoints in mind where we’ll reassess the merits of such a move being a “dead cat bounce” or something more bullish instead.
We hope you’ll join us in our livestream tomorrow as well as in Discord where we’ll share some observations of our own during the day.
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