New Lows For SPX: March 19 Stock Market Preview
Get $300 off of the annual Portfolio Manager subscription, enter code SPRING2026 at checkout!
We didn’t record a YouTube video today, but yesterday’s video focuses on SPX, IWM, the VIX, BTC, GLD, and GOOGL, so check it out! You can view prior YouTube videos by clicking Community at the top of our homepage to find our YouTube channel link.
Indices maintained a negative bias for most of the day, reaffirming the downtrend as SPX made a new low relative to Friday’s low.
Net GEX continues to be strongly negative, with the largest net GEX cluster at 6500 (excluding 0 DTE GEX data, which I excluded on purpose on the chart below). 6600 and 7000 also represent fairly significant clusters, in terms of size.
At this point, it would be nice (in my view) to see a capitulation day where buyers simply give up in order to reach a good entry for swing longs. Could this be at 6600? 6500? I think somewhere between those two points is where I will be interested in looking more closely.
I’ll note an interesting divergence visible on the chart: Volume today was elevated at 6700, 6750, and 7000. A speculative view might interpret that volume as bullish, from a contrarian perspective.
I want to see SPX overtake and close above 6660 for a potentially bullish short-term scenario, otherwise, the selling brings us to the range already discussed between 6500-6600.
QQQ closed at lows of the day, but we don’t see new lows like we do for SPX. Is this a divergence that means anything bullish? Possibly, but with QQQ’s net GEX still weighted toward lower strikes (especially 580-590) and other indicators still looking negative, it’s hard for me to make any decisions confidently in the bullish direction until we have more information.
Excluding 0 DTE GEX and volume, we see 590, 620, and 630 all saw significant relative volume, interestingly.
The VIX held where it needed to hold on the downside, giving VIX bulls hope that a new move higher may take the VIX to new highs. We do see a positive net GEX setup for the VIX, with clusters at 30, 35, and 47.5 that stand out.
I see the VIX hasn’t made a new high despite the “controlled demolition” of SPX to new short-term lows, so that divergence is something to watch.
Technically, I want to see what happens at VIX 26.50 in conjunction with what we see happening with the indices at that time to form a view regarding the likelihood of the VIX spiking further or dropping from what might be a lower high.
IWM unironically closed one penny below the declining HMA at 246.02.
GEX remains negative, and volume was heavy at the 235 and 240 strikes, a zone that I’ve viewed as a possible buy zone.
Overcoming and closing above 250 to the upside may indicate that a relief rally is in store, so I’ll be watching what may be decisive action in the next day or so.
From a contrarian perspective, the GEX-weighted volatility gauge showing very high implied volatility while the GEX intensity gauge is near a negative extreme may imply a short-term bottom is near. This would theoretically fit with IWM holding a test of the 235-240 area, so let’s see what tomorrow brings!
We hope you’ll join us in Discord tomorrow, where we’ll continue the conversation during market hours. Thanks for reading!
To enter Discord as a non-subscriber, go to our homepage and click on Community to enter our Discord server! First-time guests receive a free 7-day trial of the premium Discord channels and this is where we discuss what’s happening in real-time.
We conduct a livestream that is accessible from our homepage every day around 10:30am ET, so feel free to join us there. We may have a few dates over the next few weeks where we don’t have the livestream as we complete another huge round of website upgrades, but we’ll try to give advanced notice when this is set to happen. You can also listen to our most recent livestream any time before the next day’s livestream occurs.
We’re still running an annual discount for the annual Portfolio Manager subscription, though it ends soon, so enter SPRING2026 at checkout!
Thanks for being part of our community and know that we invite and appreciate your feedback!
The information provided by Geeks of Finance LLC is for educational purposes only and is not intended to be, nor should be construed as, an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security or instrument or to participate in any transaction or activity.
Please view our Investment Adviser Disclaimer and Risk Disclosure.
